Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,833 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Only three markets today, as we’re taking one of our estimated nine days off for the year on MLB futures due to time constraints. Here’s the context on each of the others.
On single game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 17–8, we’re up 7.39 units, we’re up 30% (the average line on our winners has been –110). That 30% number is unlikely to be sustained, but it’s been an encouraging few weeks. Can we do 5% from here? 10%? Lot of season to go.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.29 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge.
St. Louis @ San Francisco
Each team has burned a lot of bullpen going into this one, so we’re calling that piece a wash. Where does that leave us?
The Giants appear undervalued all over the place, and to be fair, their early-season performance has borne that out. Still, it’s not like the Cardinals are the best team in baseball right now, and the double standard evident in these odds is a reflection of the power of confirmation bias. The Giants weren’t expected to be good, so their early-season results are being overweighted. The Cardinals were, so theirs aren’t. We don’t like Jordan Montgomery’s early-season FIP for us tonight, and we don’t like Alex Cobb’s early-season xERA, but the reverse is true as well: Montgomery’s xERA isn’t amazing and Cobb’s FIP is great. Every game out there has a flaw this evening. We’ll take this as our best-value play.
Pick: San Francisco to win +106. Low confidence. (Montgomery and Cobb must start.)
Western Conference
FiveThirtyEight has hated the Lakers against the Grizzlies, relative to the market, which makes their indication that these odds are positive-value an encouraging one. The idea seems to be that the Suns are overvalued, which is an idea we can get behind.
Pick: LA Lakers to win +550. Low confidence.
First Round: Milwaukee vs. Miami
We don’t think this is good value, and unless you’ve been riding with us and also have the Heat at +750 this round, we don’t recommend taking it. Still, for our portfolio it makes a lot of sense, allowing us to cash in a portion of the Heat future while maintaining some upside.
Our NBA track record is nonexistent. These bets are very experimental. We’d rather look back and have been too cautious than look back and kick ourselves. Also, this leaves the most likely scenario of what we already have down as roughly a two-unit profit exiting the first round, with two units dead on the rest of the playoffs but seven units across four other teams still alive.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –255. Low confidence. x3
First Round: Toronto vs. Tampa Bay
This is positive-value, per Gelo.
It’s also a hesitant play.
We got burned on NHL betting last year, and we don’t want that to happen again, so we’re trying to put ourselves in likely paths to profit each round. With this one down, our likeliest status with what’s currently been placed is a 0.39-unit deficit but three units outstanding on advanced teams exiting the first round. We’ve got some time left before the round ends, too.
Pick: Toronto to win –325. Low confidence.
