Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,311 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus futures across all three of the active Big Four leagues.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 20–18 so far, up 1.81 units. We had a bad start, but we’ve been hot over the last week and a half.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re playing just one future per day.
Baltimore @ Anaheim
The Angels have been struggling lately, but Reid Detmers has been the best qualified pitcher in baseball so far this year on a per-inning basis. He’s got a 1.62 FIP. He’s got a 2.53 xERA. He’s striking out seven and a half batters per start. Albert Suárez’s season debut went very well for the Orioles, but out of all the options today, that’s not a bad red flag to take.
Pick: Anaheim to win –105. Low confidence. (Suárez and Detmers must start.)
ALCS
How big of danger are the Astros facing thanks to this 7–16 start? They’re down to only about a 50/50 shot of making the playoffs, and at the moment, FanGraphs has Seattle favored to win the West. Why the Mariners and not the Rangers? Well, the Mariners have the better roster between the two, and that’s even with a fairly optimistic look at Texas’s rotation, where FanGraphs is expecting Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom to combine for 145 innings this regular season. Even with a slower start of their own, there’s value here.
Pick: Seattle to win +1100. Medium confidence.
World Series
The ripple effects from that Astros start reach far, but this is more about the Orioles. It’s possible the Orioles have really cracked the code and will keep performing outrageously well in perpetuity. More likely, they’re a 90-win team. That’s still very good, but they’re being treated as better than that by the market, and it’s opening up value on teams like the Blue Jays.
Pick: Toronto to win +2800. Medium confidence.
First Round: Minnesota vs. Phoenix
We’re adding a second unit on the Timberwolves, but this time just on them to get through the first round. We like the value on them over the longer term, but the probability of the Nuggets rolling through the West is too high to allow us to do a conference finals/NBA Finals-heavy portfolio. We want to start by stacking some early-round wins, and we like this price when the better team is holding a 1–0 lead.
Pick: Minnesota to win –173. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
We like the value on the Rangers at this price, and that’s the primary reason for this pick. As a secondary reason, though, this pairs really well with our Hurricanes future, getting us either a +650 or +750 Stanley Cup future into the Eastern Conference Finals with home-ice advantage if both of them can take care of business over the rest of this first round. The probability of that is roughly 70%. We’re happy with these first few days.
Pick: NY Rangers to win +750. Low confidence.
