Not a great day yesterday, but the Warriors did get the upper hand back despite missing Jimmy Butler, and that’s a good thing for our NBA portfolio.
Today: Our daily MLB moneyline, our daily NBA and NHL playoff futures, and NASCAR at Talladega.
Pittsburgh at Los Angeles
Tyler Glasnow’s four starts this year:
- Atlanta: Five innings, eight strikeouts, three walks.
- Philadelphia: Two innings, two strikeouts, five walks.
- Chicago: Six innings, seven strikeouts, one walk, two home runs.
- Texas: Four innings, six strikeouts, one walk.
An average Glasnow start so far this year lasts 4.1 innings. He strikes out five, walks two, and allows half a home run. This is good for a 3.80 FIP, which is good, but it’s not as good as his norm. He’s also—as has long been his custom—not lasting very deep into games.
Glasnow might have more upside than anyone else in the league, even at the age of 31. In single games like this, he’s terrifying. But with the best of the Dodger bullpen stacking up some pitch counts yesterday, these odds are just too long. The Pirates will probably lose. But this is a valuable play.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +287. 15.00 units to win 43.05. Falter and Glasnow must start.
Jack Link’s 500
Back when John Hunter Nemechek drove for Front Row Motorsports, he averaged a top ten finish across his four races at superspeedways. Last year, his first at Legacy Motor Club, he managed a top ten in the Daytona 500. This year, he’s already finished with a pair of top tens at superspeedways. In twelve career races at these kinds of tracks, he’s got one top five, four top tens, and only five finishes outside the top fifteen.
Superspeedways lend themselves towards random results. We don’t buy that Nemechek’s only half as likely as the average driver to win this one.
Pick: John Hunter Nemechek to win +8000. 2.00 units to win 160.00.
Stanley Cup
Gelo is high on both the Jets and the Blues in the Western Conference, viewing the Stars and Avalanche as overvalued. We do think that’s a little overblown—Gelo doesn’t account for Gabriel Landeskog’s return—but at some point, markets are ignoring the regular season. The regular season doesn’t tell you everything, but it tells you more than anything else does.
Anyway, our Western Conference future on the Blues is big enough that they’re still a higher-upside option for us than the Jets, even as we put down our portfolio’s third Jets play.
Pick: Winnipeg to win +800. 2.00 units to win 16.00.
NBA Eastern Conference
This is boring, but we aren’t seeing any other value today that makes sense for our portfolio. The Celtics’ odds will probably shorten a bit if they bounce back today, and the Celtics will probably bounce back today. Since we’re doing a portfolio approach, we need a good amount of Celtics. The value isn’t bad.
Pick: Boston to win –145. 2.00 units to win 1.38.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –115.72 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –3% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 308 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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