Tough one yesterday for our MLB and NASCAR picks. With IndyCar and F1, the loss was more straightforward.
Thankfully, the Warriors won, leaving our NBA portfolio only down 6.84 units exiting the first round. Thankfully, we’ve got a lot of portfolio left to use both there and in the NHL.
We’ve got those two portfolios, the daily MLB moneyline, and our weekday MLB futures ahead. Let’s get into it.
Seattle at Sacramento
I don’t think lineups are out yet for the Mariners, and I don’t know whether they’ll include Randy Arozarena or not. What I do know is that FanGraphs’s numbers say the A’s are valuable here regardless of whether Arozarena’s hamstring holds him out or not. Bryce Miller’s a red flag, but we have to accept at least one of those today. That’s how the breaks are breaking.
Pick: Sacramento to win +103. 15.00 units to win 15.45. Miller and Severino must start.
World Series
The first of these—Philadelphia—is a team we don’t have any other postseason futures on. Their expected value is positive today, so we’ll jump at the chance to add them to the portfolio. The second—Detroit—offers the second-best value in the market (trailing the A’s, where we’re comfortable with our current level of investment). For a team more than 80% likely to make the postseason, that’s a great asset within a portfolio approach.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +1400. 2.00 units to win 28.00.
Pick: Detroit to win +2000. 2.00 units to win 40.00.
NBA Playoffs
The Pacers beating the Cavaliers in Game 1 hasn’t really made the Celtics more or less valuable. What it has done is increased the urgency of getting units down on Boston. The value’s there, it’s greater than it is on Oklahoma City, and there’s a good chance the Celtics are likelier to at least make the Finals. We’ll take a chance to stock up.
Pick: Boston to win Eastern Conference –160. 2.00 units to win 1.25.
Pick: Boston to win Finals +200. 2.00 units to win 4.00.
Second Round: Toronto vs. Florida
Our model still likes who it’s liked relative to the market: Winnipeg, Toronto, and Washington, plus Vegas after this round. Toronto’s the only one of those four who play tonight.
We already have eight units on the Leafs of the 26 currently pending—four to win the Eastern Conference, four to win the Stanley Cup. The value here isn’t as good as it is in those markets, but hay’s worth more in the barn, so we’ll give ourselves the opportunity to get some sooner.
Soon, we’ll start looking at our probability of profiting and work on maximizing that. For now, we’re still amassing value.
Pick: Toronto to win series +161. 2.00 units to win 3.22.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –193.05 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –5% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 321 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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