We are Canes fans now.
One daily MLB moneyline today, plus our weekday MLB futures and our daily NBA and NHL playoff futures.
Texas at New York (AL)
I understand the distrust of Will Warren, but the Yankees have a fresh bullpen and Warren’s been effective on the whole and he’s coming off a great road trip. We’ll always love Patrick Corbin for 2019, but this is too much respect to show the Rangers.
Pick: New York to win –205. 15.00 units to win 7.32. Corbin and Warren must start.
World Series
We’re on the Twins again, as those odds still haven’t corrected. In case you missed it yesterday: 14-to-1 to win the ALCS. 55-to-1 to win the World Series. That does not make sense, and even 14-to-1 to win the ALCS might be profitable.
We’re not at the point yet where we need to pump the brakes on these guys, but we’re probably getting close.
Pick: Minnesota to win +5500. 2.00 units to win 110.00.
NL East
Meanwhile, on the regular season side, we have an issue with the three-horse race in the NL East. That issue is that it’s hard to get all three to be profitable scenarios. To do that, everyone needs average odds of +201 or longer, or one team needs really long odds. These are long enough and the value’s good enough that we’re going to take advantage.
Pick: Atlanta to win +410. 2.00 units to win 8.20.
NBA Finals
The Thunder are not invincible, and the Timberwolves have the personnel to attack their weak spots. But the Thunder did win a ton of games this season, and they managed to get past a Nuggets team whose greatest strength aligned with the Thunder’s greatest flaw. They should probably be a bigger favorite here.
Pick: Oklahoma City to win –175. 8.00 units to win 4.57.
NHL Eastern Conference
Our model only sees narrow value here, but markets have swung so strongly towards the Panthers that our model does see positive EV. We’re going to take it slow.
Pick: Carolina to win +115. 2.00 units to win 2.30.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –255.41 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 335 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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