We’re back. A rundown of where things stand:
- Our NHL futures portfolio is in a tough spot. We’re heavy on the Canes. More details below.
- Our NBA futures portfolio is in a great spot. We’re heavy on the Knicks. More details tomorrow when we revisit it before Game 4.
- Our MLB futures portfolio is fine. It’s part of the 2026–27 season for these bets, and the only issue with it is that we’re seven days behind pace. The current plan is to publish those on weekends as well as weekdays until we’re caught up.
- Our World Cup futures portfolio will start on Thursday. Hard to believe it’s been four years since Morocco gave us so much fun.
- Our MLB moneylines are a little below even, but nothing terrible, especially by our own mediocre historic standards. They continue as part of these bets’ 2025–26 season until it ends, which will happen when both the Stanley Cup Finals and NBA Finals are over.
Texas at Kansas City
Nathan Eovaldi’s been a workhorse, but he’s struggled with the long ball. Stephen Kolek’s been the better pitcher in his limited action.
Pick: Kansas City to win +110. 4.42 units to win 4.86.
AL East
We got the Rays here at 10-to-1 back in April, so we have plenty of leverage to put a little more on the Yankees while there’s value in the early days of Aaron Judge’s injury. If they slump, our portfolio goes up anyway thanks to Tampa Bay.
Pick: New York to win –175. 2.00 units to win 1.14.
World Series
Here, it’s the Brewers, whose odds should probably be closer to implying a 50/50 World Series win probability if they get through the NL. Right now, FanGraphs projects them to finish with a better win–loss record than any American League team, and if they get through both the Dodgers and the Braves, there’s a decent chance they’ll have been undervalued.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +1800. 2.00 units to win 36.00.
Stanley Cup
We’re putting more on Carolina here. It’s kind of a lot, and it does leave our portfolio as effectively a 103.74-unit bet on the Canes that pays 92.11 units. Our NBA winnings will outweigh that if the Knicks win, but it’s definitely still a lot, and it leaves us heavily invested in the underdog winning tonight, since we’ll obviously have no leverage if the Knights lead 3–1.
Pick: Carolina to win +156. 20.00 units to win 31.20.
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These numbers are for the 2025–26 effort, which is currently scheduled to end at the end of the NBA Finals or Stanley Cup Final (whichever comes second). We’ll track the 2026–27 campaign in more detail when it’s fully underway (it’s partly underway right now with our MLB futures portfolio).
2025–26: –693.85 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,168 single-game markets plus seven completed futures portfolios and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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