The Nuggets and Jets both extended their series on our behalf. The Capitals did not. Here’s hoping the Leafs and Celtics pull off their respective road upsets tonight.
Another MLB moneyline today to follow, plus today’s playoff basketball and hockey futures, and our weekday baseball futures.
Seattle at San Diego
We tend to think the Mariners are valuable and the Padres aren’t right now. So, when FanGraphs says there’s positive expected value on San Diego at this price, we notice. Then, we’re reminded that Stephen Kolek has a 0.00 ERA across two starts and threw a complete-game shutout at Coors Field six days ago, and we get excited. That was the piece of Saturday’s game that went unnoticed. Yes, the Rockies lost 21–0. Part of that was Kolek dominating, and while yes it’s the Rockies, it’s also Coors Field.
Kolek is 28 and has never started consistently in the major leagues. It’s likeliest that he’s just another guy, but it’s possible the Padres have found something, or at least have a pitcher who’s outpacing the scouting reports. With most guys, the uncertainty isn’t wide enough to have reason to think they might be great. The distribution of Kolek’s outcomes includes some where he’s a great starting pitcher in 2025.
Pick: San Diego to win –143. 15.00 units to win 10.49. Evans and Kolek must start.
World Series
This gives us a ton of Minnesota, but the Twins have won eleven straight and markets are slow to react. The value’s off the charts, even accounting for likely trade deadline inaction.
For the other one today, we’re adding a little more on the Yankees. If last year taught us anything, it’s to load up on the big name favorites while they’re valuable.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +800. 2.00 units to win 16.00.
Pick: Minnesota to win +5500. 2.00 units to win 110.00.
NBA Finals
There’s value on the Pacers today, and that’s based on some modeling which doesn’t directly account for Jayson Tatum’s absence. We’ll happily grab it while it’s here.
Pick: Indiana to win +750. 2.00 units to win 15.00.
Stanley Cup
Well, the Jets are alive, meaning our model could still save some face. Still, we’re rolling with the Oilers for the time being. We need something stable since the rest of our portfolio’s all on Toronto and Winnipeg.
Pick: Edmonton to win +255. 2.00 units to win 5.10.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –195.96 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –5% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 333 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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