The good news yesterday was that the Timberwolves won, opening our NBA futures campaign on a strong note. The bad news was the Cardinals getting shut out, driving our third straight MLB loss and pushing our average ROI on the year back to –4%.
We’ve got another MLB moneyline today, one more future each for the NHL and NBA, and an F1 play.
San Francisco at Anaheim
For the first time in a few days, there’s a moneyline which meets all our parameters: Justin Verlander’s underperformed expectations so far. The bullpen/fatigue equation should balance in the Angels’ favor. FanGraphs calls it positive value. This is a Sunday, and the Angels lost yesterday.
All boxes checked. We’ll see if it breaks the streak.
Pick: Anaheim to win –102. 15.00 units to win 14.71. Verlander and Kikuchi must start.
First Round: Cleveland vs. Miami
This is another longshot, and because of timing, it feels longer than the Wolves to win the Western Conference felt yesterday. More individually surprising things need to happen for this one to pay off than the Wolves won. But fewer things need to happen in total.
This isn’t about Heat Culture as much as it’s a power rating play. The Cavs are better than the Heat, but not by this much. That said, Heat Culture doesn’t hurt.
Pick: Miami to win series +1400. 2.00 units to win 28.00.
Stanley Cup
Our Gelo model is high on the Leafs, and we don’t need to think it’s right about how good they are to think there’s value here. There isn’t much playoff experience on this Senators roster, and Brady Tkachuk is at the very least banged up. We wish that wasn’t the case, but the Leafs are probably undervalued in at least the first round.
Pick: Toronto to win +1100. 2.00 units to win 22.00.
Saudi Arabian Grand Prix
The polesitter’s won here three of the last four years. The other time, Max Verstappen won. We know Red Bull isn’t what it was two years ago, but we aren’t going to be against Verstappen on the pole. We don’t think Piastri has it in him yet.
Pick: Max Verstappen to win +140. 3.00 units to win 4.20.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –129.49 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –4% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 300 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
