The MLB moneyline losing streak is over, and we’re back up to a –3% average ROI across 2025. Futures were less successful yesterday, but they didn’t do badly.
We’ve got another MLB moneyline today, one more future each for the NHL and NBA, and our weekday MLB futures.
Toronto at Houston
After an infamously bad start to 2024, Hunter Brown’s been the pitcher he was previously thought to be. In fact, if you start the sample right after a two-out, nine-run performance against the Royals last April, he’s got a 2.70 ERA backed by a 3.28 FIP. Over that stretch, both those numbers are in the top twelve among qualified pitchers.
The value here isn’t great, but it’s positive, and nothing about this matchup raises red flags.
Pick: Houston to win –130. 15.00 units to win 11.36. Gausman and Brown must start.
AL West
It’s a dogfight right now in the AL West, with all five teams within three games of one another. On paper, the best of the five isn’t the Astros. It’s the Mariners. I’m not sure people grasp how good Cal Raleigh is.
This doesn’t give our portfolio a new team/market combo or one that’s newly a profitable scenario. But the value is great and the probability is—compared to postseason futures—pretty high.
Pick: Seattle to win +275. 2.00 units to win 5.50.
ALCS
On the postseason side, we’re rolling with the Mariners a second time. We have postseason futures on nine American League teams. Adjusting for LCS vs. World Series, this gets the Mariners’ upside in line with that of the Tigers, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and the rest.
Pick: Seattle to win +1000. 2.00 units to win 20.00.
Stanley Cup
Our Gelo model’s two NHL favorites are the Leafs and the Jets. We got the Leafs yesterday at 11-to-1, and there’s value on the Jets at this price today. It’s early in this process—we’ve only placed three futures—but if our model is accurate (and history suggests it might be), we’ve got better than a 40% chance of profiting by twelve units or more. That upside will drop as we add more futures, but the probability will rise.
Pick: Winnipeg to win +800. 2.00 units to win 16.00.
NBA Finals
The upside here isn’t very large, but that’s kind of how it goes with the NBA. Neil Paine’s modeling suggests there’s value on the Celtics at this price. We don’t want to go too overboard on them, but to make money on NBA Futures usually either requires a stroke of luck (a conference longshot hitting) or betting a lot of bets on favorites.
Pick: Boston to win +200. 2.00 units to win 4.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –117.78 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –3% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 302 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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