Josh Berry (NASCAR driver) came through for us. The Washington Nationals did not.
Another MLB moneyline today, today’s playoff basketball and hockey futures, and our weekday baseball futures. Off we go.
Miami at Chicago (NL)
We’ve lost two in a row, which means today’s more about loss avoidance than value maximization. Part of our recent pivot involves stopping bleeding when it starts.
FanGraphs has five teams as 60% favorites or better today. Of those five, four feature a starter outpitching his projections. Of those four, two are facing a starter pitching worse than his own projections. Of those two, the Cubs are in a better place re: injuries and bullpen fatigue, relative to their opponent, than the Padres. That’s true however you balance Ian Happ (oblique discomfort) and Dane Myers (undergoing imaging, unclear for what from what I’ve seen). It doesn’t hurt that markets agree the Cubs are the likeliest team to win today.
Pick: Chicago to win –255. 15.00 units to win 5.88. Quantrill and Rea must start.
World Series
We’re tempted by the Cardinals’ odds to win the NL Central, as we were at the back half of last week as well. There’s more urgency here, though. Division markets aren’t that quick to react, they already did react once to the Cards’ hot streak, and there’s a big shift in scheduling fortune these next two weeks between St. Louis and Chicago. We’ll keep watching for an opportunity to grab more Cards, but for now, we need something on the second-best team in baseball, on whom postseason value is finally available. We’re doubling up.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +800. 4.00 units to win 32.00.
Second Round: Minnesota vs. Golden State
One way to interpret Game 3 from T-Wolves vs. Warriors is that the Warriors had their chance to win a game without Stephen Curry and they didn’t pull it off. Another is that even without Stephen Curry, the Warriors nearly beat the Wolves. I’m not sure tonight’s a foregone conclusion.
Our portfolio does have leverage here—we stand to gain a good chunk of units if Minnesota wins the Western Conference—so that makes it easier. But this does seem to be where the value lies in markets right now.
Pick: Golden State to win series +550. 2.00 units to win 11.00.
Stanley Cup Playoffs
I don’t understand the futures markets in Oilers/Knights. They imply Vegas has a 46% chance of winning the Stanley Cup if they win the Western Conference, but that Edmonton has a 51% chance. They imply Vegas has a 44% chance of winning the Western Conference if they win this series, but that Edmonton has a 52% chance. Going by market favorites, Vegas would probably have home-ice advantage if they made the conference finals. Edmonton wouldn’t. Both would have home-ice advantage in the Stanley Cup Finals. If Edmonton’s chances are better in the Stanley Cup Finals, Vegas’s should definitely be better. Meanwhile, these series odds imply Edmonton and Vegas are about as good as one another. The conference finals odds imply Edmonton’s a little bit better. The Stanley Cup Finals odds imply Edmonton’s a lot better.
These plays are both positive-value per our model, but they’re also positive-value per the markets themselves. If Edmonton’s a little better than Vegas, there’s value on the Oilers to get past the Knights and win this series. As long as Edmonton isn’t a ton better than Vegas, there’s value on Vegas to win the Stanley Cup.
Pick: Edmonton to win second round series –240. 2.00 units to win 0.83.
Pick: Vegas to win Stanley Cup +1300. 2.00 units to win 26.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –198.93 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –5% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 330 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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