Our NHL portfolio’s in a tough spot. Our NBA portfolio is suddenly looking pretty good. The Marlins gave us a big win last night on the MLB moneyline.
Another MLB moneyline today, today’s playoff basketball and hockey futures, and our weekday baseball futures.
Washington at Atlanta
To put it simply, this checks all our boxes. Trevor Williams is outperforming his projections. AJ Smith-Shawver is right around his. The Nationals’ bullpen should miss a little less firepower than the Braves’ because of injuries and fatigue. Both lineups are already out, so when FanGraphs indicates positive expected value, it’s basing that on the starting nines. We’ll look for our second big win in as many days.
Pick: Washington to win +175. 15.00 units to win 26.25. Williams and Smith-Shawver must start.
NLCS
We mentioned the Phillies earlier this week as a team flashing positive value but small positive value. Because they’re in that spot and have been in that spot, we don’t have a lot on them in our portfolio. Given they’ll probably at least make the playoffs and the opportunity’s here to get them relatively cheap, we’re going to change that.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +700. 2.00 units to win 14.00.
World Series
Here, it’s more about value maximization. The value on the Tigers is great, and as we mentioned yesterday, there’s a decent chance they end up being the 1-seed in the American League.
Pick: Detroit to win +1800. 2.00 units to win 36.00.
NBA Western Conference
We do still have some hope that the Nuggets will pull this series out, but there’s value on the Thunder, we have leverage because of our Timberwolves bet, and the Thunder’s price will lengthen if they win tonight. We’re going to add a little bit on OKC.
(I’m very glad we got the Celtics at 40-to-1 yesterday. Not saying they’re going to advance, but I’m glad we have that.)
Pick: Oklahoma City to win –240. 4.00 units to win 1.67.
Stanley Cup
Our model’s been getting its butt kicked, with last night’s Leafs disintegration a tipping point. Thankfully, Gelo’s great strength is how quickly it reacts. We see value on Edmonton, and we’re going to grab a lot of units here, since if the Jets do win tonight and extend that series, this price should at least shorten a little bit.
Pick: Edmonton to win +260. 16.00 units to win 41.60.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –174.96 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –4% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 333 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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