The Diamondbacks had their chances last night, but they didn’t get it done. Making matters worse for us, Eduardo Rodriguez didn’t pitch very well after we spent some time yesterday hyping him up. If we’re going to lose a bet, we’d like to at least not look stupid.
Today’s stuff: Our daily MLB moneyline, our weekday MLB futures, and our latest NBA and NHL futures.
Texas at Sacramento
Jacob deGrom’s still Jacob deGrom, but that FIP is concerning. Concerning enough that we trust that this play is indeed a positive-value move.
Pick: Sacramento to win +118. 15.00 units to win 17.70. deGrom and Ginn must start.
NLCS
We’re going to keep building our position on the Mets here. They’re in the sweet spot of being both a definite contender and presenting positive value. We want both those things in our portfolio.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +700. 2.00 units to win 14.00.
AL East
On the division side, there’s value on the Yankees again, and after flipping them to an unprofitable scenario with yesterday’s Red Sox play, this flips them back. Will we keep doing this? If the odds keep presenting opportunities, yes.
Pick: New York (AL) to win –105. 2.00 units to win 1.90.
NHL Western Conference
Our Gelo model is still high on the Jets and Leafs. High enough to make us not look elsewhere. This makes two futures on each so far: One to win their conference, one to lift the Stanley Cup.
Pick: Winnipeg to win +325. 2.00 units to win 6.50.
NBA Finals
It’s finally time to bet the Thunder. The value should be there, even at this price, and that’s with some heavy consideration of playoff experience and no consideration of Jayson Tatum’s injury. This makes both the Thunder and Celtics profitable champion scenarios for our portfolio.
Pick: Oklahoma City to win +170. 2.00 units to win 3.40.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –103.42 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –3% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 305 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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