Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,859 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
All four markets today, with our last MLB futures of the week. Here’s what to know about where we stand on each.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 24–12, we’re up 10.93 units, we’re up 30% (the average line on our winners has been –105). Things continue to go well.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.74 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.29 units so far.
Colorado @ New York (NL)
This is the biggest favorite we’ve bet all season, and there are two reasons for that:
First, we’ve lost two in a row. This is only the third time all year that it’s happened, but given we have the dual mandate with these of 1) making money and 2) building a following, we don’t want any followers who jumped on Wednesday to deal with three straight losses.
Second, FanGraphs is implying a positive eROI on this, and that’s wild. We haven’t seen many big favorites flash positive eROI on FanGraphs this year. There’s a disagreement between the market and the metrics here, and it wouldn’t be surprising if that disagreement boiled down to the fact that the Mets just got swept by the Tigers. That is largely a perception thing.
We’re concerned by Kodai Senga’s command, but we also like to distrust guys coming off the IL, and Antonio Senzatela fits that bill. We’ll take the Mets for a small return to get us back on track, and we’ll kick ourselves really hard if they lose.
Pick: New York (NL) to win –240. Low confidence. (Senzatela and Senga must start.)
NLCS
This opened up yesterday, but we were occupied with the Red Sox and with the Diamondbacks on the World Series front. We’ll happily add it today.
Pick: Arizona to win +5500. Medium confidence.
World Series
For as hot as they’ve started, the Rays are still undervalued every day across every futures market. This is especially puzzling because the Rays, more than anyone in baseball, have built a reputation for outperforming the FanGraphs projections. At least, that’s how we’ve seen it.
So, we’re in on the Rays whenever it makes sense for our broader strategy concerning depth and breadth. Today, with the Rays dipping towards being an unprofitable World Series scenario, this makes sense.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +750. Medium confidence.
Second Round: Golden State vs. LA Lakers
FiveThirtyEight is showing us value on the Sixers, Warriors, Heat, and Nuggets. It’s not the same quantity of value across the board, but that’s where we’re seeing the value lie. At the moment, accounting for upside and downside and devaluing future rounds by ½ per round (to adjust for the distance between us and that upside), we have the least on the Warriors, so we’re adding something on the Warriors today. One way to look at this series is to ask whether Steph Curry is better than LeBron James right now. It’s a huge oversimplification—Anthony Davis is, according to some, the best player in the series—but it’s not the worst way to look at it. We like the Warriors to ultimately get through and catch us part of a unit.
Pick: Golden State to win –130. Low confidence.
Second Round: Toronto vs. Florida
Gelo has the Panthers as the Eastern Conference favorites now, and it’s hard to disagree. They’ve got a 2–0 series lead, they haven’t played a home game yet, and the Hurricanes are a little underwhelming. Gelo’s claim that the Panthers are the best remaining team in the Eastern Conference at this moment is a little more suspect, but the bottom line is that it’s going to be very difficult for the Leafs to come back and win this series. They can certainly make it interesting, and it’s possible they’ll win, but getting the biggest futures favorite on the board at positive eROI isn’t something we’re going to pass up.
Pick: Florida to win –290. Low confidence.
