Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,339 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus MLB, NBA, and NHL futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 24–28 so far, down 4.27 units. We’re on another cold stretch right now, but we did win yesterday.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 1.39 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down one unit so far.
Texas @ Kansas City
Brady Singer’s been solid so far, Michael Lorenzen’s had some issues, and the Rangers overvaluing we see in the futures market might be happening on single games as well. They were a good champion last year, but they were a little fluky. The Royals have put together a solid little moneyball team. Some good youth, some respectable veterans, and a competitive product.
Pick: Kansas City to win –109. Low confidence. (Lorenzen and Singer must start.)
Atlanta @ Los Angeles
We’ve been saying all season that the Braves are better than the Dodgers. We maintain that is the case.
Pick: Atlanta to win –103. Low confidence. (Morton and Stone must start.)
AL East
We’re getting a little value on Baltimore again, small though it might be. We’ll need more on both them and the Yankees to make them profitable options in this market, but every little bit helps, and if it does turn into a two-horse race, the other three teams in the division should hang around long enough to make it possible to keep getting both contenders at longer odds than even.
Pick: Baltimore to win +160. Medium confidence.
World Series
Not great vibes, placing this today as a Cubs fan, but the Brewers have been great so far, and they’ve got a lot of high-upside youth, like Joey Ortiz and Tyler Black. Good things are happening in Milwaukee.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +4000. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals
Who’s going to stop Boston in the Eastern Conference? It was already shaky, but with no chance now of a healthy Bucks team and with the best non-Bucks player in the Eastern Conference done for the year, the Celtics have a really clear path. If it’s the Nuggets they play, this won’t pick up much value, but if it’s anyone else, this’ll be a great price.
Pick: Boston to win +130. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
If they keep posting it, we’ll keep placing it.
Pick: Eastern Conference champion to win –115. Low confidence.
