Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,882 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Not Gelo’s best night last night, but the Oilers winning kept it from being disastrous, with the added benefit of leaving the futures portfolio in a very happy place. More hockey today, last baseball futures of the week (programming note – we’ll still have baseball futures on Monday, even with it being part of the long weekend). For futures portfolio context: The NHL futures bankroll started at 100 units, with another 100 in reserve in case of hedging need. The MLB futures bankroll started at 520 units, with another 520 in reserve in case of hedging need.
Colorado @ St. Louis
Gelo likes St. Louis a lot, and while it’s not enamored with the under, it leans that way. We’d be fine with a split, making us take this, but a red flag with the total is how much totals have risen as this series has gone on, something we’ve seen in a few other series as well. May be worth investigating.
Overall, the Blues have a solid chance to force Game 7, and while it may not be roughly 50/50, as Gelo sees it, the market’s appreciation of the Avalanche has surged again relative to Gelo, which has adjusted but has only adjusted so far. Unless Colorado is playing down to its opponents’ level, it’s hard to keep justifying the market’s fawning response to this team. The market may end up correct, but we’re seeing some outlandish odds.
Pick: St. Louis to win +145. Low confidence.
Pick: Under 6.5 -105. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
We don’t love placing another Blues future, but the value is too good to pass up, and we’re at that intersection of probability and value where it’s worthwhile to place it. If the Blues lose tonight, dang. If the Blues win tonight, we’re riding high and might even decide to hedge before Sunday’s Game 7.
On the other side, while we’ve focused more on Gelo’s dislike of the Flames and Avalanche, it really does like the Oilers now, and sees them as having improved since this postseason started. They are, after all, 8-4 on the playoffs, and they’ve won six out of seven in a sport where conventional wisdom says recency matters. They’ll get some rest before facing whoever it is they face, and if you want to get into the altitude discussion, Edmonton’s at two thousand feet and Calgary’s at three thousand, meaning these guys won’t have as big a shock going a mile into the atmosphere as, say, the Predators had. In other words: If Gelo’s missing some home-ice advantage for the Avalanche, it shouldn’t miss it as loudly on the Oilers as it would miss it elsewhere.
Pick: Edmonton to win +525. Low confidence.
Pick: St. Louis to win +2800. Low confidence.
AL East
With last night’s win, the Blue Jays climbed within two games of the Rays for second place in the East, still very much on the outside of the race (7.5 back of the Yankees), but not so far back as to not have any value in the market anymore. There’s slight positive value here, taking it makes Toronto winning a profitable outcome again within our AL East-specific portfolio, we’ll gladly take it, acknowledging we may need to do some additional anchoring on the Brewers or Astros when we return next week.
Pick: Toronto to win +360. Medium confidence.
NLCS
Speaking of the Brewers, we got a little too close to them not being a profitable NLCS-specific outcome for our own comfort. This builds a little better cushion.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +525. Medium confidence.
