Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,937 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
All four markets today, with the last MLB futures before they take the weekend off (we plan to have them back on Monday). Here’s where each one stands.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 34–23, we’re up 7.15 units, we’re up 13% (the average line on our winners has been –113). It’s been a good start to the year, and while May hasn’t been a great month overall, we’ve had a good recent run, winning our last five.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 7.63 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.03 units so far.
Cincinnati @ Chicago (NL)
A bit last-minute with this one, so apologies for that. We’re in on the Cubs. Justin Steele’s been great all season, even when other teams have scored runs, and he’s been consistent. Hunter Greene’s been solid as well, but the value between those two is off. Steele is great, the Cubs have a fresh bullpen thanks to getting wrecked last night, we’ll take our guys.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win –137. Low confidence. (Greene and Steele must start.)
World Series
We’re doubling up today, with Atlanta getting dangerously close to an unprofitable outcome for us in the World Series market. There’s still value on these guys nearly every day in nearly every futures market, so it’s a matter of balancing probability with value. The value isn’t spectacular, but the probability is great.
Pick: Atlanta to win +500. Medium confidence.
Pick: Atlanta to win +500. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals
We’re set with no downside in the Eastern Conference (we lose nothing if the Celtics win, we pick up ten units if the Heat win), so we’re all about value, especially with our Nuggets downside small in the Finals (we have upside in the Finals on both the Celtics and the Heat). This is where the value lies, and one thing to think about is this:
If the Heat beat the Bucks and, in the event they do play the Nuggets, beat the Celtics, why are they such an underdog against the Nuggets?
Pick: Miami to win +475. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup (Hedge)
We don’t see positive value on this, but we don’t see any positive value today which makes sense for our portfolio, so we’re going to start the hedging process on the Finals a little bit early. For all we placed on the Panthers to win the Eastern Conference, we only grabbed them in the Stanley Cup market once. This is something we’d inevitably do regardless of how the Vegas/Dallas series turns out, so we’re going to do it now. Just one unit for the moment.
Pick: Florida to win +105. Low confidence.
