Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,389 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus MLB, NBA, and NHL futures. One note: The plan with MLB futures this weekend is to take tomorrow and Sunday off, as usual, but to be back on Monday even though it’s a holiday. All other markets will be active through the weekend as usual.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 42–48 so far, down 10.50 units. This is like when a young team unexpectedly performs well one season then opens slow to start the next year: We don’t know whether we’re going to heat back up or if we’re actually just bad at this.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 2.67 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down 2.20 units so far.
Milwaukee @ Boston
This is a little expensive for Brewers vs. Red Sox, but Kutter Crawford has been so dang good so far this year, and Bryse Wilson—the likeliest bulk reliever for Milwaukee—should be due for the bad kind of regression. This is a slight pivot from the approach which has us so far in the hole.
Pick: Boston to win –130. Low confidence. (Koenig and Crawford must start.)
ALCS
We talked about this in today’s notes, but between all the streakiness, the Twins haven’t actually underperformed their expectations. The Guardians and Royals have overperformed their own, so some reaction is reasonable, but the Twins are still one of the better AL teams, and it’s currently looking possible the AL Central champion will get a bye through the Wild Card Series, which is wild. This is the second-best value out there today.
Pick: Minnesota to win +1400. Medium confidence.
World Series
For the best value, we’re in on the Padres again. They’ve kept winning, and the price hasn’t changed. They’re likelier than not to make the playoffs.
We do have a maximum amount of upside we’ll give ourselves on a team. At some point, it isn’t worth it even if the value’s the best. We’re not getting close to that yet, though.
Pick: San Diego to win +6500. Medium confidence.
NBA Western Conference
The Wolves are a heavy favorite tonight and were a solid favorite before the series began. Give us a little more on Minnesota.
Pick: Minnesota to win +135. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
Back onto this one. Gelo almost sees value on the Oilers, but not quite. We’re going to hold out.
Pick: Eastern Conference Champion to win +100. Low confidence.
