Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,861 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We got a win from Gelo last night, but the bigger development was the Blues winning and lifting our futures portfolio in the process. We’re in on each game tonight, we’ve got more futures, and we have our last baseball futures of the week. (Portfolio context: The NHL futures bankroll started at 100 units, with 100 in reserve in case of hedging need, while the MLB futures bankroll started at 520 units, with another 520 in reserve for October and any necessary hedging.)
New York Rangers @ Carolina
With Game 1 nearly a one-goal game, the under’s getting a lot of love today, and that might be fair. Gelo does like the over, though, and it especially likes it at these odds. We like it as part of this pair.
Pick: Over 5.5 (-103). Low confidence.
Edmonton @ Calgary
How big an indicator was Game 1 of how this series will go? If the answer to that is “very,” expect chaos tonight. I’m not sure chaos favors the favorite (I’d guess it pulls things closer to 50/50).
Pick: Edmonton to win +147. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
We’re doubling up here. Gelo continues to only see value on the Blues, Oilers, Rangers, and Lightning. We’re heavily in on the Blues and Oilers already (though…we might add more tomorrow). The Rangers are a longshot to keep winning, and we’re in more heavily on them than the Lightning so far. The Lightning lead their second round series 2-0 heading back to their home rink. Gelo views them as the Stanley Cup favorite right now. We’ll trust it, and trust them.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +450. Low confidence.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +450. Low confidence.
AL East
Doubling up here as well, as we continue to anchor the division side of our portfolio.
If the Yankees, Astros, or Brewers lose their division race, we’re going to be in trouble. At the same time, though, if the Mets, White Sox, or Dodgers lose theirs, we’re going to be in a great spot. Ideally, those possibilities will balance out, and do so in a way that leaves us gaining units. We’re a long way from having this cornered, but with all three of the favorites we’re in on up by more than a game and viewed by FanGraphs as more than 75% likely to take the division, and with all three of the favorites we’re out on below 65% likely and, in two of those cases, reeling from rotation injuries or trailing in their division, we’re pretty happy with where we’re at. If it goes chalk from here, our division plays turn a 6% profit. If, say, the Rays and Twins flip the script, that number jumps to 17%. And we have a lot of season left.
Pick: New York to win -245. Medium confidence.
Pick: New York to win -245. Medium confidence.
