Today’s Best Bets: Friday, May 19th

Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,895 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).

Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.

Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.

Just three markets today, as we send our MLB futures into the weekend early (they get one weekday off a month, plus the All-Star Break, all in the interests of fair labor).

On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 29–21, we’re up 5.59 units, we’re up 11% (the average line on our winners has been –109). It’s been a good start to the year, though we’re still down a bit in May.

For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.27 units so far.

For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.73 units so far.

Detroit @ Washington

We’re high on Jake Irvin. Not in the long term, but right now, he’s averaging five innings per start with a 3.43 FIP. In his lone bad outing results-wise, he struck out six and walked one.

It’s suspicious that Irvin hasn’t allowed a home run yet, and his xERA is much higher than that FIP, but even the xERA (4.88) isn’t far off the projection FanGraphs is working with for his FIP when they put out the probabilities we use to screen for value. We see value here, and with a fine record on the Nats so far this year (two wins, one loss, up 2.34 units), we don’t see any glaring red flags.

Pick: Washington to win +101. Low confidence. (Boyd and Irvin must start.)

Western Conference (NBA) – Hedge

Just one unit on this, as we cross our fingers for Jimmy Butler to steal Game 2 and really turn things on their head, but we’re hedging here to try to lock up a little more value after the first three games of the Conference Finals have all gone our way. We told the story recently of a hedge fund-employed friend who in 2019, hearing we had some Bitcoin that could make us a 50% profit on our investment a year prior, advised us to sell on the basis that anytime you can make a profit on an investment you don’t fully understand, you should take it. This is our first time doing NBA Futures. We’re going to take the profit when the option is there to take it.

Pick: LA Lakers to win +350. Low confidence.

Eastern Conference (NHL) – Hedge

Five units on this one, which is the promised hedge should the Panthers take one in Raleigh. They took one, we have a chance to effectively lock ourselves into profit on the postseason, we’re going to take that chance. We retain upside on the Panthers (and the Knights, below), but we nearly eliminate our downside with this one and the next.

Pick: Carolina to win +135. Low confidence. x5

Western Conference (NHL) – Hedge

Three units on this, which is the other part of the hedge. Our scenarios are outlined in this coming table, but the sum of it is that as long as Vegas or Florida wins their series, we’re in great shape, and even if both lose, we may be able to hedge our way to safety thanks to our Stanley Cup upside on the Stars. After losing 25% last year on hockey (the max we allow ourselves to lose on these futures portfolios), we’re going to finish this year in the black, and if things break our way, we could be up more than 30%.

Pick: Dallas to win +110. Low confidence. x3