Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,882 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
All four markets today. Here’s what to know on each.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 27–16, we’re up 8.78 units, we’re up 20% (the average line on our winners has been –109). It’s been a good year so far.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.92 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 1.16 units so far.
Cincinnati @ Miami
Eury Pérez makes his MLB debut tonight, and the debutant is one of the best prospects expected to reach the major leagues this year. It’s a huge moment for the Marlins, and against a Reds offense 28th in the majors in wRC+, it’s a good opportunity for Pérez.
Graham Ashcraft has been solid this year, and Pérez is young to be making this debut, without a single AAA inning thrown. Still, Pérez is good enough and the Reds are bad enough to make this a worthwhile play as we look to avoid our first three-game losing streak of the year.
Pick: Miami to win –134. Low confidence. (Ashcraft and Pérez must start.)
NL West
We’re going back to this, still seeing positive value on the Dodgers and getting the most out of them in terms of how it helps our baseline scenario in the division portion of our portfolio. We still won’t profit if all the current favorites win, but we’re getting closer, it’s only May, and our upside elsewhere is more than big enough to be worth that cost.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –150. Medium confidence.
ALCS
The Rays are at a good price today, and that’s nice for us, since we only have one previous pennant bet down on Tampa Bay, back at 10-to-1 early in the year. This gives us some breathing room surrounding the likeliest ALDS participant in the American League.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +325. Medium confidence.
Game 6: New York vs. Miami
This isn’t a hedge—we’re seeing positive value on the Knicks tonight—but it functions like one, given how much value we have outstanding on the Heat. We would still prefer the Heat to win this series, and for the sake of that we’d really like them to wrap it up tonight, but this gives us a significant consolation prize if the Knicks send it back to Manhattan.
Pick: New York to win +210. Low confidence.
Eastern Conference
We’re adding another one here, banking on the Panthers wrapping this up tonight or Sunday. Our leverage for the Eastern Conference Finals still isn’t what we’d like it to be—we only make 8.05 units off our 8 units bet if the Panthers win, as it currently stands—but we can work with it to get to a tolerable place, and there’s a good chance we have even longer odds to look at tomorrow and Sunday.
Pick: Florida to win +175. Low confidence.
