Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,446 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus MLB and NHL futures. With the NBA futures, we’re planning to wait to see how Game 2 goes. We don’t like the value on the Mavericks, but the price on the Celtics is so short that it doesn’t do a lot for us, especially with our portfolio already effectively a –692 bet on Boston as things stand. We will hold for the time being.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 59–56 so far, down 5.00 units. It’s been a terrible performance, one in which every sign of progress has been met with a swift comedown. That said, we’re 9–1 over the last three days.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down 22.20 units so far, but as with the NBA portfolio, we’ll profit if our portfolio’s preferred champion—in this case, the Panthers—wins.
Colorado @ St. Louis
Austin Gomber hasn’t been as good as his ERA, while Lance Lynn has been quietly respectable in his return to the Cardinals. Our trust in St. Louis isn’t as high as in most clubs, but we also don’t doubt their ability to compete, which makes us like them to bounce back against the Rockies after losing the series opener last night.
Pick: St. Louis to win –177. Low confidence. (Gomber and Lynn must start.)
NL Central
We’re doubling up on the Brewers here in the NL Central market. This week’s Reds bet pushed Milwaukee close to being an unprofitable scenario for us, and this—at a positive eROI—gets them more than two units profitable again. If all current favorites win their divisions, we’d lose about ten units on the division portion of our portfolio from what we’ve placed so far. So, opportunities like these are valuable, even if our underdogs are strong enough to make our present division eROI much better than a ten-unit loss.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –140. Medium confidence. x2
Stanley Cup
This price has gotten a little bit shorter, but we still like it. Our portfolio is now effectively a 58.20-unit bet on the Panthers, one which pays only 4.34 units. Those are effectively –1341 odds. Not great.
Pick: Florida to win –137. Low confidence.
