Editor’s Note: Joe would say this isn’t that great, but over a sample size of 266 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 1% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to at least not lose money.
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No game lines look great today, but there’s one futures pick to be grabbed while the opportunity’s there. As is always the case with futures picks, the lines are the best available approximation of the Vegas consensus at the time this is written.
To date, I have two units down on the Yankees to win the AL East, both at -120, but no other picks in that market. It’d be nice to add another option there, since while the Yankees are the favorite, they aren’t an overwhelming one, and with two units on the Yankees, I have the flexibility to make another low-confidence pick while still profiting if the Yankees do win that division.
The options, of course, are the Red Sox and the Rays, and while the Rays lead the Red Sox by five games, they’re also at +215, while the Red Sox are at +600.
At that value, the Red Sox are, clearly, the better choice, and they meet the baseline qualification of yielding a positive expected value given FanGraphs’ Playoff Odds. They’re also a smart bet according to FiveThirtyEight’s predictions, which means two very differently constructed models are landing at the same place: The Red Sox are more likely than a one-in-seven bet to win the East.
How could they get there? They’re only six and a half games back of New York, and while the Yankees will eventually get pieces back, New York is still certainly the more banged-up team. More significantly, the Red Sox have the easier remaining schedule. Of their 19 scheduled games against the Yankees, only five have been played, and all those were in the Bronx. The two are in opposite places with regard to remaining games against the Orioles: the Yankees only get to play the bottom-dwellers seven more times, compared to twelve for Boston.
The Yankees are, as previously stated, the clear favorites. But the Red Sox have more than a slim chance. Take them while they’re here.
Pick: Boston to win AL East +600. Low confidence.
