Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,901 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Gelo got another win last night, so while the Avalanche have our backs against the wall a bit on futures, we continue to make progress by way of hockey. More of that for tonight, plus hockey and baseball futrues. For futures context: The NHL portfolio started with 100 units, with 100 more units in reserve in case we need them to hedge. The MLB portfolio started with 520 units, with 520 more units in reserve in case we need those to hedge.
AL West
This is a low-payout play, but it still presents pretty good value, and it’s the clearest spot for that to impact our portfolio, helping anchor us against things like the White Sox winning the Central or the Dodgers pulling away in the West (and the market staying ahead of them).
Pick: Houston to win -550. Medium confidence.
Pick: Houston to win -550. Medium confidence.
Tampa Bay @ New York Rangers
This isn’t exactly a positive/positive-odd split, but it’s close (and it is one with a lot of books, just not on the consensus overall). Gelo likes the over, Gelo likes the Rangers, we like Gelo. Think a slight assumption might be going on in the market that the Lightning will even this up thanks to some law of order or the Rangers lightening up after Wednesday’s win, but whether it’s that or just a difference of opinion on the Rangers, we’re happy with these odds.
Pick: New York Rangers to win +110. Low confidence.
Pick: Over 5.5 (-101). Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
There are two choices at this point, and those are to either hedge by betting on the Avalanche in some fashion or try to stick with value. The value is available right now on the Rangers and the Oilers. The Oilers’ probability is too low (and our outcomes in which they win are too good already) for it to make sense to chase them further. Pouring more into the Rangers does hurt our scenarios in which the Lightning win the series, but to be fair, the Rangers are the series favorites now, and the longer we can hold off from hedging, the better off we think we’ll be. We’ll see again tomorrow. Don’t like that the Avalanche-over-Lightning scenario is further from zero than the Lightning-over-Avalanche one.
| Winner | Loser | Final Net Units |
| Rangers | Oilers | 81.78 |
| Lightning | Oilers | 68.72 |
| Rangers | Avalanche | 38.28 |
| Oilers | Rangers | 37.43 |
| Oilers | Lightning | 32.37 |
| Lightning | Avalanche | 25.22 |
| Avalanche | Rangers | -37.32 |
| Avalanche | Lightning | -42.38 |
Pick: New York Rangers to win +400. Low confidence.
Pick: New York Rangers to win +400. Low confidence.
