Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,960 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Back to four markets today. MLB futures will be off over the weekend, as usual.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 36–28, we’re up 3.94 units, we’re up 6% (the average line on our winners has been –113). April was great, May was bad, we started June with a loss but there’s a lot of June left.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 17.63 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.49 units so far.
Milwaukee @ Cincinnati
Corbin Burnes is having a down year, with his median outing not a quality start and a lot of home runs two times back through the rotation. Still, he’s a good pitcher who knows this Reds’ roster well, and Brandon Williamson has been giving up some fierce contact in his limited sample.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –158. Low confidence. (Burnes and Williamson must start.)
NLCS
We’re in on the Padres again here, with the value still there. The Dodgers’ division odds are starting to lengthen again, and while I’m not sure much has actually changed in the complexion of that race from the Dodgers’ point of view, San Diego’s reestablishing itself as the primary opposition.
Pick: San Diego to win +1000. Medium confidence.
World Series
We’re in on the Rangers again as well, our high-upside team in the American League. So much of their situation revolves around Jacob deGrom’s health, but if it’s there, it’s there, and they haven’t done half-bad in his absence.
Pick: Texas to win +1800. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals (Hedge)
We didn’t get the Heat win last night we were looking for, but the approach doesn’t change. We keep trying to chip away at our bad-case scenario, which will still leave us profitable no matter what happens from here but will ideally leave us close to where we already are on the postseason.
Pick: Denver to win –700. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup (Hedge)
The story stays the same here as well. Tomorrow, we’ll presumably have more of the same again. Saturday night we’ll finally get some sort of change in the market.
Pick: Florida to win +105. Low confidence.
