Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,506 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines and futures. That is all. We’re continuing to cross our fingers and let the NHL portfolio ride. Two more chances.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 75–70 so far, down 6.46 units. It’s been a terrible performance, one in which every sign of progress has been met with a swift comedown. To pick a selective sample, though, we’re 26–15 over the last 17 days, and we’ve cut our deficit by more than a third over that timeframe. All other selective samples are worse.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
New York (NL) @ Chicago (NL)
I’m as scared of the Gay Mets as any Cubs fan in the country. But the Cubs are rested, they’re coming off two big wins, and they’ve got their ace on the mound against a guy who’s been struggling. Grimace? Terrifying. But the Cubs should win.
Pick: Chicago to win –143. Low confidence. (Quintana and Imanaga must start.)
AL East
It’s very hard to find positive value on the Orioles in futures markets, because the Orioles are on such a run of dramatically overperforming their projections. So, with this value positive, we’re taking it, even if it erases some of our Yankees position. It raises our worst-case division scenario by more than seven units, and that’s far from nothing.
Pick: Baltimore to win +200. Medium confidence. x2
