Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,462 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines and futures. With both the NBA and NHL futures, we’re still waiting at least one more game. We’re set to get about a five percent profit on each portfolio if the Celtics and Panthers close the series out, and we think they will.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 68–62 so far, down 3.79 units. It’s been a terrible performance, one in which every sign of progress has been met with a swift comedown. But, we’re 19–7 over the last ten days, and we’ve cut our deficit by more than half.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Detroit @ Houston
The Astros’ run differential is flying under the radar. Despite their heartily sub-.500 record, it’s positive, and BaseRuns says it should be even larger.
Has Houston been playing badly? Yes. But badly for them is still better than the Tigers, and Hunter Brown’s been solid lately after his horrible start to 2024. Tarik Skubal is not some paper tiger. He’s been one of the two best pitchers in the American League this season, and there’s no reason to expect that to change. But with Brown serviceable, I’m not sure Skubal moves the needle far enough to keep these odds this close to even.
Pick: Houston to win –114. Low confidence. (Skubal and Brown must start.)
NL East
We’re doubling up on the Phillies today, continuing to see narrowly positive value on them even with this low upside. In a 750-unit portfolio, we don’t mind devoting a chunk to odds like these. Anything longer than –2000 is fine by us.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –425. Medium confidence. x2
