Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,804 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
More MLB futures today, as we close out the week and rise to 72 of 520 units invested (with 520 more units in reserve, waiting for October or September hedging), plus picks for Sunday’s NASCAR and IndyCar races.
World Series
The Blue Jays are still undervalued here, so we’ll take them and create a little space, doing our best to make sure they remain a profitable route even as we place units on other teams. Feels even better given they’re the AL favorite. We still have a big hole on the Dodgers, but the cause of that is that the Dodgers are sucking up a lot of the oxygen in the market, creating value elsewhere.
Pick: Toronto to win +800. Medium confidence.
AL Central
I don’t know how long this will last, so while it doesn’t change our profitable scenarios significantly, we’re going to drop a little more in the bucket. The Twins aren’t yet favored by FanGraphs over the field in the Central, but they’re getting close, and there’s no guarantee the White Sox figure it out, especially since the White Sox have always been viewed with suspicion by projection systems in recent years anyway (in other words, their struggles might be less surprising than they appear).
Pick: Minnesota to win +300. Medium confidence.
NASCAR Cup Series: DuraMAX Drydene 400 (Dover)
It’s an interesting market right now for the Dover race, with Kyle Larson eating up a lot of the odds, creating space further down the list. Chase Elliott won here all the way back in 2018, Truex had four straight top-two finishes over 2019 and 2020, Bowman won last year, Harvick won the second race of the 2020 doubleheader, Kurt Busch had a pair of fifth-place finishes in 2018…pretty good history from all those guys, with Busch and Harvick the most suspect.
For Harvick, if you take the dirt race and the Daytona 500 out of the equation, his average finish on the season’s been roughly tenth, and if you limit it to the tracks one would think would be the best indicators of Dover success—Phoenix, Richmond, and Martinsville, the shorter tracks on the circuit right now—the average finish has been roughly sixth, indicating fewer problems than the narrative suggests.
For Kurt Busch, the same exercise isn’t as positive—you get 15th for both sets of tracks used with Harvick above—but he was in the top six at both Phoenix and Martinsville, and at 50-to-1?
Brad Keselowski still has just one top ten on the year, and it was at Daytona, but it remains difficult to pass him up at the odds he’s getting, and it’s a similar story with Erik Jones, who’s been best on superspeedways (he wrecked out at Daytona) but did finish a quiet 3rd at Fontana, implying—along with last week’s strong run at Talladega—that the Petty GMS #43 isn’t completely noncompetitive.
If putting a number on it, I’d revert to 50/50, but Elliott, Truex, and Bowman give a few likely contenders, and the longshot value’s still here with the back three. Could do worse.
Pick: Chase Elliott to win +800. Low confidence.
Pick: Martin Truex Jr. to win +1000. Low confidence.
Pick: Alex Bowman to win +1200. Low confidence.
Pick: Kevin Harvick to win +1400. Low confidence.
Pick: Kurt Busch to win +5000. Low confidence.
Pick: Brad Keselowski to win +6600. Low confidence.
Pick: Erik Jones to win +12500. Low confidence.
IndyCar: Honda Indy Grand Prix of Alabama
Newgarden won here in 2017 and 2018, Dixon’s been on the podium in three of the last four races here, Power was second last year, and Palou won it last year. That’s good-enough history from all four. They’ve also each looked strong so far this season—Newgarden’s on a two-race winning streak, Power’s been in the top four in all three races and drives for undefeated-to-date Penske, Dixon has yet to finish worse than eighth, and Palou has two podiums and a worst finish of seventh. There are holes, for sure—the market likes Colton Herta, Scott McLaughlin is dangerous, there are others—but this gives a solid chance of winning with enough upside to justify the downside.
Pick: Josef Newgarden to win +500. Low confidence.
Pick: Álex Palou to win +650. Low confidence.
Pick: Scott Dixon to win +800. Low confidence.
Pick: Will Power to win +900. Low confidence.
