Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,843 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
All four markets today, including our final MLB futures of the week. The context in each sphere:
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 20–9, we’re up 9.88 units, we’re up 34% (the average line on our winners has been –106). That 34% number is unlikely to be sustained, but it’s been an encouraging month of picks. Almost one sixth of the way through the season.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA futures: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 3.79 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.71 units so far.
St. Louis @ Los Angeles
We kind of like Dustin May as a sleeper Cy Young candidate. He doesn’t strike many batters out, but he manages contact exceptionally well, and he’s gone deep into games so far, sitting tied for eighth in innings pitched among the NL starters with the standard five starts so far. Jack Flaherty, on the other hand, has a concerning FIP and a concerning xERA in the earlygoing. J.D. Martinez’s back is a concern, but the Dodgers are decently equipped to handle it. We’ll ride with the favorite in the late game tonight.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –132. Low confidence. (Flaherty and May must start.)
ALCS
The value on this is hardly positive, but it’s positive, and we’re taking it. The Yankees were, entering today, an unprofitable AL Pennant scenario for us, and we want as many profitable paths as we can get, provided we’re never betting negative-eROI plays. We especially want those paths when the team’s the third-likeliest to win in this market.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +550. Medium confidence.
NLCS
This is just the best value available that doesn’t flip any other profitable paths of ours to unprofitable. We have more upside on the Giants than any other serious playoff contender in the league, and with the chance they make the playoffs hovering around 40%, we don’t hate our ability to leverage that down the line if it itself doesn’t pay off.
Pick: San Francisco to win +3300. Medium confidence.
Western Conference
We’re doubling up today so that we can get value on both of these without flipping either to a negative path. As it stands, our Western Conference payouts, in a vacuum, are now:
- Grizzlies: +7.0
- Nuggets: +3.0
- Warriors: +1.6
- Lakers: +0.5
- Suns: –6.0
- Kings: –6.0
That isn’t great leverage against the Suns, but that’s why we’re making plays like these. It’s a process, and there’s a whole lot of basketball left to be played.
Pick: Golden State to win +275. Low confidence.
Pick: Denver to win +325. Low confidence.
First Round: New Jersey vs. New York Rangers
If the Kraken can finish off the Avalanche, we’re in great shape exiting the first round. If they can’t, we really need the Leafs to finish off the Lightning, and even that wouldn’t be enough to leave us profitable through the openers assuming the Kings don’t come back and take out the Oilers. Our portfolio isn’t in bad shape—our futures beyond the first round are on the Bruins, Oilers, Knights, and Stars, all of whom have either advanced or are one win away—but we’d like to not have any deficit to try to make up, so with this high-probability, positive-value line available on the Devils, we’re taking it. Hopefully Seattle wins tonight and lets us take a little breath.
Pick: New Jersey to win –300. Low confidence.
