Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,317 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus futures across all three of the active Big Four leagues.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 21–23 so far, down 2.19 units. We had a bad start, but we’ve been stronger over the last two weeks.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re playing just one future per day.
Kansas City @ Detroit
It’s a big weekend in downtown Detroit, and we’re betting on the good vibes to keep going. Seth Lugo’s gotten great results so far, and his FIP is very good, but he’s allowed a lot of hard contact. Also, being in a little bit of a skid these last four days, we like betting a favorite, and this is the biggest favorite we found with positive value. The Tigers’ bullpen is fresh, the weather looks good. No red flags.
Pick: Detroit to win –124. Low confidence. (No starting pitcher requirements.)
World Series
We’ve reached the point in the season where there is no new value. Following the Twins bet here, there is nothing flashing a positive eROI we haven’t already bet to happen. So, our first double-up on the same team in the same market goes to the Braves, whose odds are short enough that our first future on them was not enough to make them a profitable World Series path (we have six other World Series bets down and the odds we got Atlanta at were only 5-to-1). For reference, we’re basically at number 3 now on the following priority list:
1. Bet on a team not yet in the portfolio at all.
2. Bet on a team we haven’t bet on in that specific market.
3. Bet on a team that isn’t currently a profitable outcome in a specific market.
4. Take the best value available.
We’ll still have some action at 1 and 2, and some days, we’ll get to 4, but a lot of the next few weeks will be circling back to teams we previously got at short odds and taking them at short odds again.
Pick: Atlanta to win +475. Medium confidence.
Pick: Minnesota to win +3000. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals
While we do want to maximize value, we’re also trying to insulate ourselves against a Celtics/Nuggets matchup in the Finals. The way we’re doing this is that we’re trying to keep our hypothetical upside/downside entering the Finals above zero.
In practice: We’re up 1.27 units so far, from the Play-In Tournament. We’ll get another 1.54 units when the Nuggets finish off the Lakers. We have four conference title futures on teams not named the Celtics or the Nuggets. The expected value of our series bets on the first round is +0.67 units. Together, that leaves us down 0.52 units entering the Finals in this hypothetical scenario. We have a Finals bet down already on the Celtics at +170. Adding this one makes our upside scenario +0.68 units and leaves our downside scenario at +0.18. If the Nuggets or Celtics do go down, our conference title futures will most likely either cash or appreciate dramatically. We’re trying to keep a firm floor here.
Pick: Denver to win +220. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
We aren’t doing any of those sorts of shenanigans with our NHL portfolio. Hockey is more straightforward. The game is more random and the effort is more consistent. Teams don’t highlight games to win as much as they do in the NBA. The favorites are not as overwhelming. It is easier to adjust as circumstances change.
We’re adding the Panthers here because we’re seeing a positive eROI on them and they’re one of the favorites. We think the eROI is materializing because of a disagreement between our model and the markets regarding the Vegas Golden Knights, and while we think markets are onto something, we think they’re overestimating the impact of Mark Stone’s return by a massive, massive factor. Add in just how well Sergei Bobrovsky has been playing, and we like having the Panthers in our mix.
Pick: Florida to win +500. Low confidence.
