Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,365 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Futures odds, as usual, come from Bovada due to the lack of a consistently current/accurate Vegas consensus online. First, though:
New York (AL) @ Cleveland
This’ll be our fifth time betting a Cleveland over this year. We’re 1-3 so far. I don’t think that’s significant, but I don’t really know. It’s possible I’ve got the park factor jacked up, since we’re 0-3 in Cleveland home games, or that it’s a seasonal park factor I haven’t adjusted for adequately. Whatever the case, giving it another shot tonight. We’ll see.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Seattle @ Boston
The wind is howling out towards the Pesky Pole, for whatever it’s worth.
Pick: Over 9.5 (+100). Low confidence.
NL Central Champion
The NL Central stinks. I hope the Cubs are fine (because I’m a Cubs fan), but even at my most optimistic, it’s hard to see them being in anything better than a tossup race with Milwaukee. So, since I’d like to add a future and the only good odds are on teams already in the fold (Boston, Houston, Anaheim, New York (NL), Milwaukee, and Kansas City are what we have, and all of those but Kansas City still have odds with eROI’s at 20% or higher in at least one market), this is the one to take. It has the highest eROI of anything I see today, Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain aren’t supposed to be out too long, and even if they are, the pitching staff is good enough that it should be able to handle the mediocrity of the NL Central, where there isn’t one big threat as much as the collective threat that either the Cubs, the Cardinals, or the Reds will figure it out, make a big deadline addition (seems more likely for the latter two than the former), or take advantage of a potentially weak Brewers lineup to sneak up there. It’s not a guarantee, but if you like futures, this is the best one out there right now, at least on the odds I use.
Pick: Milwaukee +165. Medium confidence.
