Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,828 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
We’re active in four markets today, and we’ll be active in three of them through the weekend (MLB futures are only a weekday thing for us). Here’s the context on each.
On single game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 14–8, we’re up 4.72 units, we’re up 21% (the average line on our winners has been –110). That 21% number is unlikely to be sustained, but it’s been an encouraging few weeks. Can we do 5% from here? 10%? Lot of season to go.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.29 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge.
San Diego @ Arizona
Every now and then, there’s a bet we really, really like. This is a scary experience. It’s easy to walk into buzzsaws this way. We’re going to trust our approach, though, and we’re going to trust Zac Gallen, who’s been a top-ten pitcher in the world since the start of the 2022 season.
Among other things we like here, the Diamondbacks managed to keep their bullpen pretty fresh last night, while the Padres used both of Josh Hader and Tim Hill for the second straight day. With Brent Honeywell eating 40 pitches, that bullpen’s a little spent, and it’s already been dealing with a run of injuries. Add in that Seth Lugo’s in his first year as a real starter in half a decade, and we think the bullpen matters even more.
There are no can’t-miss bets, especially at close to even odds. But we really, really like this price.
Pick: Arizona –102. Low confidence. (Lugo and Gallen must start.)
AL East
We’re scared of where the Rays’ odds can go, and the value remains high. We’re also scared of a crash, but generally over the last few years, FanGraphs has undervalued Tampa Bay, and we have suspicions that’s systematic—that the Rays are out-nerding even the nerdiest of nerds.
There are higher-value plays out there, and there’s some fresh value we could chase, but right now, for our portfolio, this makes the most sense. We can amass a ton of value and still leave ourselves highly vulnerable to a bad regular season by not taking enough division favorites. Most of the time, that ends with us losing. When there’s value on a favorite, it’s nice to have them in the fold, and this leaves us with a profitable scenario involving the favorite in three or four of the six divisions. Not a bad place to be, closing out the third full week of the season.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +140. Medium confidence.
ALCS
Something that has a surprising impact on futures opportunities in baseball is short win streaks. Markets adjust, day to day, but they don’t always adjust by a big enough margin, especially this early in the year. The Orioles have only won three straight, and those were only against the White Sox and the Nationals, but they’ve continued to put themselves in strong position in the early-going, and they’ve given us advantageous odds. At this low of a price, we’re set on Baltimore for a long time. Given how likely they look to at least be a character into July, that’s going to be a good pipe in the scaffolding.
Pick: Baltimore +5500. Medium confidence.
Western Conference
We’ve been eying the Grizzlies for a while, and we’ve decided now’s the time. For a long time, it was because of how they were priced relative to the Lakers, but that’s mostly ironed out. The Lakers are deservedly a narrow favorite in that series.
What we really like is what happens if the Grizzlies get past the Lakers. If the Grizzlies win this series, there’s a higher probability Ja Morant is healthy than if they lose (there’s a correlation between Morant’s health and the Grizzlies’ win probability), and they’ll be playing either the Kings or a Warriors team that’s just played at least six games and more likely seven. That’s a good enough recipe for us to throw this into the mix.
Pick: Memphis to win +1200. Low confidence.
First Round: Vegas vs. Winnipeg
Gelo is seeing value on Vegas right now, and we don’t dislike it. The Knights have lost home-ice advantage, but that happens to most higher seeds in hockey, and most get it back over the two games on the road. We like them to get one in Winnipeg and then get two over the three-game series that follows. With Toronto and Los Angeles our other first round plays so far, this leaves us most likely needing two of the three to hit, and it leaves two as our likeliest number that do hit.
Pick: Vegas to win –140. Low confidence.
