Our MLB losing streak hit five games yesterday. We would prefer different results.
Today: Our daily MLB moneyline, our weekday MLB futures, and our daily NBA and NHL playoff futures.
Anaheim at Seattle
Should we shuffle the approach? We aren’t sure. What we should really probably do is go back and comb through those 2023 moneylines—the ones which went so well—to see if there was anything we did which we aren’t replicating. Without the time for a deep dive, we’re going to stick with what’s been working. I do think that in 2023, we may have been a little more aggressive when we were winning and more conservative after consecutive losses. Since we’ve been consistently in the middle of those two, though (we haven’t been betting big favorites just to get a win on the board, but if multiple options fit our criteria, we’ll take the one with shorter odds in order to increase our probability of winning), it doesn’t make a lot of sense to pivot. Pivoting right now would push us in a more conservative direction, and when you’re already in the hole, conservation doesn’t make a lot of sense. Self-preservation doesn’t work when there’s nothing good there to preserve.
As for this game: Anderson and Hancock are a weird pair. Hancock’s been better than his ERA. Anderson’s been worse than his. Even with some dueling regression, though, we do like Anderson. He’s generally a competent starter. Hancock gets lumped in with Seattle’s other young arms, and he might develop into something good, but he wasn’t even the prospect Bryan Woo was, and his early career hasn’t gone particularly well.
Pick: Anaheim to win +130. 15.00 units to win 19.50. Anderson and Hancock must start.
NLCS
This is the first time we’ve seen postseason value on the Cubs in a while, if not all season. We’ll happily add them to the portfolio. They’re not running away with the NL Central, but they’ve established themselves as the favorites. That’s the first step.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win +1200. 2.00 units to win 24.00.
World Series
In bigger value, we like Atlanta at this price again today. Almost back to .500.
Pick: Atlanta to win +1600. 2.00 units to win 32.00.
NHL Eastern Conference
Gelo really doubts the Hurricanes. Initially, this was just our model putting a lot of stock into their late regular season slide. After one round, though, the model still isn’t impressed. The Devils were the worst team in these playoffs, and while the Canes mostly won comfortably, they didn’t dominate.
This creates value in a lot of places, considering oddsmakers currently have Carolina favored to win the Stanley Cup. One of those places is Washington, where the Capitals will likely host the Canes in the second round. We’d still prefer Montreal to come back and win this series—we have a different future on that—but whatever happens in the East, we’re probably going to be fading the Hurricanes for the next few weeks.
Pick: Washington to win +500. 2.00 units to win 10.00.
First Round: Golden State vs. Houston
This is a low-upside play, but two things are going on: We aren’t seeing much value in the markets right now, and we’re trying to avoid that post-first round hole we’ve been talking about. With so much late-round upside only existing on the Celtics and Thunder, it’s going to be hard to dig our portfolio out of that hole if we put ourselves in it. So even these fractions of a unit would help, and with Jimmy Butler back, we do think the Warriors will put this away, even if it takes six games to do it. To be honest—and this is a risky way to think—the Warriors losing tonight might be better for us, since it’d help the Timberwolves next round (if the T-Wolves win) and it’d give us an opportunity to get in on the Warriors’ first round market one more time at a better price.
Pick: Golden State to win –750. 2.00 units to win 0.27.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –167.72 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –4% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 312 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and one barely completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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