We won our third straight MLB moneyline last night, and our NBA and NHL futures keep looking solid. More of everything today as we try to keep the year-to-date average ROI at –2% (and keep closing that deficit bit by bit).
Tampa Bay at Arizona
The Diamondbacks are banged up, missing Ketel Marte and some back-end bullpen. The Rays are more banged up, with four position players on the IL. With Eduardo Rodriguez pitching like his best self (2.88 xERA, 2.39 FIP, 11.86 K/9), we like the Diamondbacks to take care of business here, teeing up a sweep opportunity tomorrow.
Pick: Arizona to win –140. 15.00 units to win 10.71. Bradley and Rodriguez must start.
ALCS
There’s a little bit of positive value on Cleveland today, and it’s the first we’ve gotten on them in any futures market this year. That brings our portfolio up to having some sort of postseason play on ten different AL teams.
Pick: Cleveland to win +1800. 2.00 units to win 36.00.
AL East
On the division side, there’s value on the Red Sox, the second-likeliest team to win the AL East. The way our AL East bets are now constructed, we stand to lose a little if the Red Sox or Yankees win it, lose a medium amount if the Orioles win it, and win a medium amount if the Blue Jays or Rays win it. Hopefully the Red Sox and Yankees trade some blows this year if the Blue Jays and Rays don’t make a race of it. Volatility generally helps us.
Pick: Boston to win +300. 2.00 units to win 6.00.
First Round: Washington vs. Montreal
Our Gelo model is very low on the Metropolitan Division as a whole, and that’s showing up here. We don’t have Montreal favored or anything, but their 27.4% probability of advancing isn’t that much worse than the 34.4% you’d get if every remaining game in the series was a coin toss.
This is our only first round play so far, which could send us into the red after the first round is complete. We have enough value down the line (and on its way in upcoming bets) for that to be ok.
Pick: Montreal to win series +400. 2.00 units to win 8.00.
First Round: Houston vs. Golden State
This is boring, and we almost didn’t go with it. We like the idea of betting on the Magic with so much uncertainty around Jayson Tatum’s wrist, but the value isn’t big enough to justify how big a longshot it is to bet them to get through to the second round. At the conference level, the value’s great (500-to-1 is really long), but our portfolio isn’t big enough to leverage that into value if Orlando does get past Boston.
So, we resort to this. It’s not great value, but it’s positive, and we do think the Warriors will ultimately win this series. If current favorites all win in the first round, we’ll net 0.75 units. That isn’t a lot, but another play like this would put us in position to take another shot without worrying about digging too deep a hole right off the bat. In the NBA, the favorites are so big that we have to be more careful than in hockey. If we’re doing the portfolio approach, that is, as opposed to isolated futures.
Pick: Golden State to win series –310. 2.00 units to win 0.65.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –88.42 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –2% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 304 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
