We did stop our MLB moneyline losing streak before it got going, but the Jets weren’t able to pull off the escape for us. On to the Leafs, and if not them, the Oilers.
More NBA and NHL futures today, plus our daily MLB moneyline. We aren’t doing motorsports bets today because we forgot about the F1 race and NASCAR’s All-Star Race isn’t getting us fired up. MLB futures are off for the weekend.
Milwaukee at Minnesota
Is today the day the Twins’ win streak ends? We’re not sure. We do believe at least a little bit in streakiness. But at the same time, it’s easy to overweight. We’re pretty skeptical of Zebby Matthews, even though he’s been great at St. Paul so far this year.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –133. 15.00 units to win 11.28. Matthews and Peralta must start.
NBA Western Conference
We thought the Clippers were going to finish the Nuggets, so we’re prepared to lose some units on this. But looking at prices for the potential Thunder/Timberwolves series, we’re surprised this price is available, and we’re worried we won’t have chances to get value on the Thunder after today.
Pick: Oklahoma City to win –145. 4.00 units to win 2.76.
NHL Western Conference
Our model loves the Leafs tonight, at least from a value standpoint, but our model’s loved the Leafs this whole time. It also sees a little value on the Oilers, and we’ll keep stocking up on that inventory. It’s Oilers and Leafs for us right now. It was Jets and Leafs. Ideally, the Leafs win Game 7, we’re profitable on completed rounds so far, and we’ve got one horse in the race in each conference.
Pick: Edmonton to win –120. 4.00 units to win 3.33.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –231.69 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 334 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
