We picked a funny day on Thursday to say “We really like the Nationals too but we like the A’s here.” We picked a funny day yesterday to say “Our method points to the Rockies but we’re betting against them and doing it on the run line.”
Still, a profitable day.
Another MLB moneyline today, another bonus MLB play, and our daily NHL and NBA playoff futures.
Philadelphia at Sacramento
The Rockies do fit our methodology again today, but we’re passing on them. Should we apply the same treatment to the ice-cold A’s? Maybe so. We’re not at that point yet. We do believe some teams are broken, but this early in the year, we don’t think of that with streaky teams. We only think of it with teams like last year’s White Sox. Maybe that’s the wrong way to approach it.
Pick: Sacramento to win +154. 15.00 units to win 23.10. Sánchez and Springs must start.
New York (AL) at Colorado
Obviously, this strategy looks bad after yesterday’s Rockies win, but they’re still failing to cover +1.5 runs 72.5% of the time this year. We’ll do some digging on their Sunday numbers tomorrow—Sundays are weird days in baseball—but we’re at least giving this one more day.
Pick: New York –1.5 (–198). 15.00 units to win 7.58. Fried and Freeland must start.
NBA Conference Finals
The value’s on Oklahoma City across the board and on Indiana to win this series. Markets are leaving too much space for underdogs. Part of why they’re doing that, though, is that the payouts on the Thunder and Pacers are too low. So, we’re parlaying their conference futures. As it stands, if both win we’ll enter the Finals with our portfolio effectively a 2.34-unit bet on the Thunder at +531 odds. We’ll be adding plenty more, though, to the point where if these two do meet in the Finals, I’m guessing we’d profit with either winner.
Pick: Oklahoma City and Indiana to win –354. 4.00 units to win 1.13.
Stanley Cup
Nothing new here. Our model still likes the Panthers, so we’ll still keep chipping away at our potential deficit if they do win the Stanley Cup. That Oilers win was huge for us. We have no upside on the Stars.
Pick: Florida to win +130. 4.00 units to win 5.20.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –262.49 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 337 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
