It turns out that betting on the Marlins to beat the Dodgers will, more often than not, be a losing strategy.
Another MLB moneyline today, plus baseball, basketball, and hockey futures.
Chicago (AL) at Kansas City
We wrote yesterday that we were going to focus on not losing three MLB moneylines in a row. This sounds silly, because we’re never trying to lose, but what we mean is that instead of prioritizing value on days coming off two straight losses, we’re going to prioritize big favorites with no red flags (or with limited red flags). In this case, it’s the Royals, for whom Kris Bubic has been rock solid, and whose bullpen is thinner today but not empty.
Pick: Kansas City to win –230. 15.00 units to win 6.52. Martin and Bubic must start.
NLCS
After sweeping the Pirates this week, the Cardinals have won five straight and seven of their last nine. They’re up to .500, and they’re into a three-way tie for second in an NL Central that’s still figuring itself out. They’re on the older side, but the benefit of that is that they have a lot of veterans who could overperform expectations. That’s especially true of the rotation, which could pay off in October.
Pick: St. Louis to win +8000. 2.00 units to win 160.00.
NL East
Also hot are the Phillies, who’ve now won nine of their last eleven. They’re within shouting distance of the Mets, the Braves have at least momentarily stalled again, and this makes them a profitable scenario for our portfolio, although it bumps the Mets into unprofitability. Thankfully, the Mariners have us in a spot where if all current division favorites win, we’ll profit on the regular season. Plenty more bets and baseball to come, though.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +200. 2.00 units to win 4.00.
NBA Finals
We’re still high on the Warriors against the Timberwolves (especially because we’ve got that Timberwolves Western Conference future at 20-to-1), but we’re not betting on that series again until we have a better guess about Stephen Curry’s status. Instead, we’ll go back to the Thunder, who look like a bigger favorite than ever after last night’s action. The market does reflect that—I think this is the shortest their odds have gotten—but it doesn’t go far enough. OKC’s close to a coin toss to win this title.
Pick: Oklahoma City to win +130. 2.00 units to win 2.60.
Second Round: Vegas vs. Edmonton
Our model’s greatest strength, we think, is how quickly it reacts to results. We think of hockey as a “how are you playing right now” sport, and our testing backs up that approaching a model in that way is the best way to go. Others take different approaches, and they have success as well, so I’m not trying to declare some inerrant truth. But unlike a lot of other sports, when a hockey team’s hot, we think that’s real. After doubting them pretty heavily the first few weeks of the playoffs, our model’s come around on the Oilers.
Pick: Edmonton to win –215. 2.00 units to win 0.93.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –209.60 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –5% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 324 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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