Rough pair of MLB results last night. Thankfully (or not), hockey is back on the menu.
More MLB moneyline action today, plus our latest against the Rockies and our latest futures: weekday MLB futures, daily NBA and NHL playoff futures.
Anaheim at Boston
Are the Angels going to sweep the Red Sox? It might depend on how much they need the back end of their bullpen, most of which has pitched two nights in a row after Tyler Anderson couldn’t keep a big lead from becoming small on Monday night. Thankfully, the back end of the Angels bullpen isn’t all that good. It’s closer to replacement level than most.
For those wondering: I’m not sure how this compares to the league average, but José Soriano’s gone six innings in half of his starts.
Pick: Anaheim to win +118. 15.00 units to win 17.70. Soriano and Giolito must start.
Colorado at Miami
Still sticking with this anti-Rockies approach, even as our deficit on it approaches three days’ worth of playing it. Markets really don’t believe in the Marlins right now.
Pick: Miami –1.5 (+137). 15.00 units to win 20.55.
NL Central
Doubling up on this one, since the Cubs are an unprofitable scenario for us in the NL Central market. This closes that gap by about a quarter. (We have a decent amount of Cardinals upside.)
Pick: Chicago to win –285. 4.00 units to win 1.40.
NBA Finals
We covered our approach to this in greater detail yesterday, but we ran a little simulation to see how many games these Finals should go, and if the market’s moneyline price on Game 1 is correct, then prop prices overstate the probability of the Thunder (or Pacers, but mostly Thunder) winning in four games or five. Yesterday, we took over 5.5 games. Today, we’ll lay up a little and take over 4.5.
New scenarios:
| Winner | G1 Winner | Games | Total |
| Thunder | Pacers | Over 5.5 | 83.66 |
| Thunder | Pacers | 5 | 66.06 |
| Thunder | Pacers | Under 4.5 | 64.28 |
| Pacers | Pacers | Over 5.5 | 62.56 |
| Pacers | Pacers | 5 | 44.96 |
| Pacers | Pacers | Under 4.5 | 43.18 |
| Thunder | Thunder | Over 5.5 | 16.46 |
| Thunder | Thunder | 5 | -1.14 |
| Thunder | Thunder | Under 4.5 | -2.92 |
| Pacers | Thunder | Over 5.5 | -4.64 |
| Pacers | Thunder | 5 | -22.24 |
| Pacers | Thunder | Under 4.5 | -24.02 |
Pick: Over 4.5 games –450. 8.00 units to win 1.78.
Stanley Cup Finals
No complicated approach here. Just our model. The last two days, we’ve taken under 5.5, but under 6.5 offers a viable price too.
Here are our portfolio’s scenarios ahead of Game 1. Could really use an Oilers win tonight.
| Winner | G1 Winner | Games | Total |
| Oilers | Oilers | Under 5.5 | 44.73 |
| Oilers | Panthers | Under 5.5 | 35.7 |
| Oilers | Oilers | 6 | 16.98 |
| Oilers | Oilers | Over 6.5 | 9.81 |
| Oilers | Panthers | 6 | 7.95 |
| Oilers | Panthers | Over 6.5 | 0.78 |
| Panthers | Oilers | Under 5.5 | -36.19 |
| Panthers | Panthers | Under 5.5 | -45.22 |
| Panthers | Oilers | 6 | -63.94 |
| Panthers | Oilers | Over 6.5 | -71.11 |
| Panthers | Panthers | 6 | -72.97 |
| Panthers | Panthers | Over 6.5 | -80.14 |
Pick: Under 6.5 games –230. 5.00 units to win 2.17.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –340.12 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 360 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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