Never good to lose. Never good to lose with a decent favorite. Never good to lose after disparaging Wade Miley.
More MLB moneyline action today, more Rockies, our weekday MLB futures, and our daily NBA and NHL playoff futures.
Toronto at St. Louis
Chris Bassitt’s had a couple bad recent starts, which I think is what’s driving this line. His last time out, though, he carved up the Phillies for seven innings. He’s probably fine.
Pick: Toronto to win +113. 15.00 units to win 16.95. Bassitt and Mikolas must start.
San Francisco at Colorado
Back at it here. It might not matter that the Giants are hot, but it does make it feel better.
Pick: San Francisco –1.5 (–140). 15.00 units to win 10.71.
NL West
It’s not pretty, but the value is there, and the return is more than nothing, especially as part of a portfolio.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –600. 4.00 units to win 0.67.
NBA Finals
More of this, from yesterday. New scenarios for our whole portfolio:
| Winner | Games | Total |
| Pacers | 6 | 142.15 |
| Pacers | 5 | 124.55 |
| Pacers | 7 | 106.69 |
| Thunder | 6 | 74.33 |
| Thunder | 5 | 41.3 |
| Thunder | 7 | 38.87 |
Pick: Under 6.5 Games (–175). 13.00 units to win 4.73.
Stanley Cup Finals
And again, the same thing here. Our model reacts faster than the market, but it isn’t outright pro-Panthers yet.
Scenarios (not great):
| Result | Probability | Total |
| Oilers in 6 | 17.3% | 27.55 |
| Oilers in 7 | 18.7% | -8.33 |
| Panthers in 5 | 14.8% | -25.48 |
| Panthers in 6 | 20.1% | -53.23 |
| Panthers in 7 | 15.2% | -107.11 |
Pick: Under 6.5 Games (–175). 6.00 units to win 3.43.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –298.46 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 370 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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