Big one tonight in Indianapolis.
Another MLB moneyline today, our Rockies run line, and our daily NHL and NBA playoff futures. MLB futures are off for the weekend.
Tampa Bay at Houston
This line moved right before we placed the bet. We were going to get the Astros at –136. Instead, we got them at –127. Is this good? Yes and no. The development which moved that line was Houston putting Chas McCormick on the injured list. The market responded fairly proportionally to the news, so we think the value’s about the same, but this would technically violate our protocol, with the Astros’ expected missing players worth 0.1 more projected rest-of-season WAR than the Rays’, per FanGraphs.
More than anything, we’re high on Colton Gordon and way of Zack Littell. We don’t love that Gordon’s facing the Rays a second time. If some of his success comes from limited scouting of a prospect a lot of lists don’t have ranked, some Rays getting their fourth at-bat against him isn’t great. But 14 strikeouts and two walks over nearly 15 innings is good, even when accompanied by two home runs. His xERA is even better than his FIP, too. Zack Littell, meanwhile, keeps allowing long balls, and while some of that’s probably bad luck, it’s a bit ominous against the team with the second-most homers in the big leagues over the last two weeks.
Give us the Astros. Hopefully they put a few more into orbit.
Pick: Houston to win –127. 15.00 units to win 11.81. Littell and Gordon must start.
Colorado at New York (NL)
Nothing fancy here. We continue to test this out. Since we began last Friday, the Rockies are 3–3 against a +1.5 run line in games we’ve bet (we sit this out on Sundays, because “losers win on Sundays,” to quote ourselves without going into the full history and context). At the odds we’re getting, that’s made this a losing effort, and it’ll remain a losing effort on net even if we do get the cover today. But on the season, the Rockies are 17–40 against the +1.5 run line, and if you take out Sundays, it’s even worse. If the opponent’s longer than –200, we’re going to take it right now six days a week without a second look.
Pick: New York –1.5 (–170). 15.00 units to win 8.82. Senzatela and Senga must start.
NBA Eastern Conference
Neil Paine’s model is still only seeing value on the Pacers, and only in this market. If the Pacers win tonight, our portfolio’s effectively a 0.02-unit bet on the Thunder to win the Finals at 1,054-to-1. Both sides of Knicks/Thunder would be a negative outcome for our portfolio as bets currently stand. We really want the Pacers to win tonight. We are going to be in a pickle if they lose.
To be clear, this is a future—they only need to win one of the next two for it to hit.
Pick: Indiana to win –350. 5.00 units to win 1.43.
Stanley Cup
Slightly better odds on the Oilers today, as we were hoping. Our model still sees them as the plus-EV side.
Pick: Edmonton to win –115. 5.00 units to win 4.35.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –316.81 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 353 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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