On the one hand, we’ve lost six straight MLB moneylines. On the other, we’re 0-for-3 on first round NBA/NHL series futures, including one we expected to win when we placed it.
Can we make it seven and four?
Today: Our daily MLB moneyline, our weekday MLB futures, and our daily NBA and NHL playoff futures.
St. Louis at Cincinnati
Even as they swept yesterday’s doubleheader, the Cardinals managed to burn less bullpen than the Reds. Now, they’ve got one of the league’s ten best starters to date (by total fWAR, which is actually disadvantageous to Liberatore because this is only his sixth start) going up against a perfectly respectable but not overwhelming Andrew Abbott. May Liberatore be our liberator once again.
Pick: St. Louis to win –110. 15.00 units to win 13.64. Liberatore and Abbott must start.
AL East
We said a few days ago that the next time there was any shred of value on the Yankees in this market, we’d take it. That shred is here, and with one caveat, we’re locked into at least breaking even on our AL East futures as things stand right now. That caveat is the Orioles, who—to be fair—did just take two of three from the Yanks.
(We’re going to end up placing more AL East futures one way or another, but it’s nice to see all those teams in the green on our list.)
Pick: New York to win –130. 2.00 units to win 1.54.
AL Central
This is tougher, because the Twins’ financial situation makes them much less likely to make trade deadline upgrades than the rest of their division, all else equal. Trade deadline stuff is marginal, though, and the value’s big, and we’re still in a spot where the Tigers are a profitable AL Central scenario for us, even having placed this. We’ll take some Minnesota regular season upside. That’s worth two units.
Pick: Minnesota to win +700. 2.00 units to win 14.00.
NHL Eastern Conference
We’ve been holding off on betting the Senators, trying not to jump at too low-probability of a play. A 3–2 series, though, is winnable, and with Gelo showing an expected value here of +100%, it’s time to jump. We still have plenty of Leafs upside, and we’re happy with that value even if the Sens do win Game 6 tonight.
Pick: Ottawa to win +3500. 2.00 units to win 70.00.
First Round: New York vs. Detroit
We don’t really think the Pistons will win this series, but we think the value’s there and we think they can win this series. We also agree with the market that they’ll probably win tonight, which would give us the option on Saturday to hedge. Since we’re not seeing odds at either book we reference for a specific “Knicks in 7” bet, we’ll take this angle and hope for at least that optionality.
Pick: Detroit to win series +377. 2.00 units to win 7.54.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –186.72 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –4% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 313 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and one barely completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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