We got another win yesterday on the MLB moneyline (shoutout Don Kelly), and the Jets win was big. The Pacers and Leafs losing hurts the futures portfolios, though.
Another MLB moneyline today, today’s playoff basketball and hockey futures, some makeup MLB futures (normally weekday-only, but we missed yesterday), and a bet on today’s IndyCar race. Whole lot of chances to spin into a positive result.
Atlanta at Pittsburgh
AJ Smith-Shawver’s last time out, he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning. That’s very good, and probably part of why these odds are where they are. Some issues: He walked four batters and only struck out five. He also threw 99 pitches, which ties a career high. He’s pitching on normal rest today, which means he only had four days to recover (the average is slightly longer). None of this is a huge red flag on Smith-Shawver, but it explains where some of the value is coming from.
Two other sources of potential value here:
First, Andrew Heaney’s had a rough last two starts. On the season, he’s been good, but the last two outings have been bad. I’m not sure which Heaney we’re getting. That’s my biggest concern with this play. I’d write off Smith-Shawver’s no-hit bid and this next one as major factors, but I’m wary of Heaney, and were there a better option on the board, I’d take it.
Second, the Pirates have underperformed this year. I’m not making anything of this one (we mentioned the managerial change yesterday), especially since the Braves have also underperformed. But that might be contributing to the market perception of the probability today.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +138. 15.00 units to win 20.70. Smith-Shawver and Heaney must start.
AL Central
We’re doubling up on this one in order to make the Tigers a profitable AL Central scenario for us again. They’re not a prohibitive favorite, but they’re a clear one, and in a good sign for us, FanGraphs is showing a 91% probability we at least break even in this market.
Pick: Detroit to win –175. 4.00 units to win 2.29.
NBA Second Round: Boston vs. New York
We’re still Celtics believers, at least in the Eastern Conference (though maybe overall—nobody looks good right now). But, we’re going to take plus-money odds on a team up 2–0 with home-court advantage the rest of the series. That needs to be in the portfolio.
In the short run, we have plus-money bets on each worse-seeded team in the second round. In the long run, our futures are mostly the Celtics and Thunder, plus one 20-to-1 conference play on the Timberwolves.
Pick: New York to win +105. 2.00 units to win 2.10.
Stanley Cup
Our model reacts quicker than markets to results as they come in, meaning it makes more of recency than bettors and sportsbooks do. Things have to look different from expectations on the ice, though, for our model to make the change. So far, there’s been no indication our model’s wrong about the value lying with Toronto, Winnipeg, and Washington. It isn’t overwhelming that our model’s correct—those teams are a combined 4–3 in the second round so far—but our priors have not been shaken.
Today, that means another bet on the Caps.
Pick: Washington to win +1200. 2.00 units to win 24.00.
Sonsio Grand Prix (IndyCar at IMS Road Course)
Nothing fancy here. Alex Palou’s won this race back-to-back years. He’s starting on the pole again. He’s been the best car on the track this year. We think the probability’s north of 67%.
Pick: Alex Palou to win –200. 3.00 units to win 1.50.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –183.43 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –5% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 326 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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