Frustrating one from the A’s yesterday. Glad we seem to have at least correctly read the Thunder.
Another MLB moneyline today, a bonus MLB play, and our futures: weekday MLB futures and daily NHL and NBA playoff futures.
Cleveland at Detroit
Slade Cecconi is 25 years old, graduated as a decent prospect, then got thrust into the Guardians’ pitcher development program this winter. In his first MLB start of the season he struck out eight and walked zero over five innings of work. He did allow a home run to Will Benson, but he looked good. He’s a good buy-low candidate for today if not also the next few starts. Very possible the market isn’t noticing him.
Pick: Cleveland to win +104. 15.00 units to win 15.60. Cecconi and Jobe must start.
New York (AL) at Colorado
Greg Peterson—who made an appearance on Free Hoops this March—likes to point out the Rockies’ lack of one-run losses. They’ve lost by multiple runs in 37 of their 50 contests so far this year, or 74%, where –285 would be implied even-ROI odds. Not every Rockies run line is created equal, but with our moneylines scuffling, we’re going to give this a shot for a little bit. Today, they’re hosting the recently competent Clarke Schmidt, with Tanner Gordon on the hill for the home team. Gordon pitched well in his only MLB action so far this year. He also allowed seven runs. The Rockies, everybody.
(For some context, FanGraphs gives the Rockies moneyline a +29.2% expected ROI today, and there are no red flags on that bet besides that it’s the Rockies. The market is that aggressively against the Rockies and we’re still not sure it’s pricing them correctly.)
Pick: New York –1.5 (–194). 15.00 units to win 7.73. Schmidt and Gordon must start.
AL West
We’re doubling up on one today, seeing positive expected value on the Astros in division markets for the first time this season. We have a big enough chunk of Mariners upside that we have leverage here, and while this doesn’t make Houston a profitable AL West scenario in our portfolio, it at least gets them close.
Pick: Houston to win +240. 4.00 units to win 9.60.
NBA Eastern Conference
The value’s still there on the Pacers today, with this price actually a tiny bit longer than yesterday’s. The worst-case immediate scenario, as we said yesterday, is that they exit Game 2 with home-court advantage heading into a best of five.
For our portfolio’s sake, this does give us more downside if the Knicks win the series (12 units) than upside if the Pacers win (11.17 units). We’re comfortable with that. The Celtics losses have us behind the eight ball a little bit, which means taking some shots.
Pick: Indiana to win –148. 4.00 units to win 2.70.
Stanley Cup
We’re thankful that our model sees value on Florida, because it’s hard to be very confident in any other hockey team right now. The Hurricanes look like dead fish, and there’s no telling who’s going to pull what magic trick in the Stars/Oilers series. This is small, but it’s nice to get the Panthers at plus odds.
Pick: Florida to win +125. 4.00 units to win 5.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –263.09 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 337 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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