The good news: The Pacers and Oilers have our NBA and NHL portfolios close to some payouts which will offset this.
The bad news: Our MLB picks got beat yesterday.
Another MLB moneyline today, more against the Rockies, our weekday MLB futures, and our daily NHL and NBA playoff futures. Let’s get into it.
San Francisco at Detroit
Landon Roupp’s coming off two straight scoreless quality starts, and while that’s only two starts and they came against the A’s and Nationals, it gets at what’s going on: The guy’s good. Possibly better than projection systems indicate, and those projection systems indicate positive value on the Giants at this price, even without considering bullpen fatigue and getaway day angles.
Pick: San Francisco to win +103. 15.00 units to win 15.45. Roupp and Jobe must start.
Colorado at Chicago (NL)
We’ve been doing this for four games and we’ve gone 2–2, losing 12.08 units. We still think it’s worth pursuing. The Rockies are broken, and the wind at Wrigley should be a little lighter tonight.
Pick: Chicago –1.5 (–145). 15.00 units to win 10.34.
NBA Eastern Conference
Still not much value in NBA futures markets, but this is valuable, so we’re taking it. Does it make us nervous, with the Pacers heading back to Madison Square Garden for Game 5? Yes. But that’s probably why it’s available at odds this long.
Pick: Indiana to win –590. 5.00 units to win 0.85.
Stanley Cup
After last night, our model now views the Oilers as better than the Panthers again. Are they? Who knows. What Gelo (our model) tries to do is say how good teams are right exactly now. At this moment, it would favor the Oilers over the P’s on neutral ice.
Markets do reflect this a little bit, though some of that might be the difference in home-ice advantage over Games 5, 6, and 7. We’re seeing the Oilers at +110 and the Panthers at +115. At those prices, Gelo says only the Oilers are valuable, so we’re taking the Oilers. Right now, we’re in a boat where we’d finish either 7.56 units above even (Oilers win) or 46.14 units below even (Panthers win) in an Oilers/Panthers Stanley Cup Final. I’d guess we can improve those numbers, but I can’t promise that for sure. Hockey futures markets are inefficient, but they’re not that inefficient.
Pick: Edmonton to win +110. 4.00 units to win 4.40.
NL West
We’re doubling up on this one today. It’s not very high-value, but it’s positive-value, and that’s really hard to get on the Dodgers these days.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –600. 4.00 units to win 0.67.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –302.77 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 347 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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