Another MLB win yesterday, pulling us up that little bit further from the depths. We go for three in a row today, then put in our daily futures.
Baltimore at Washington
To be clear, this isn’t the basis for this bet. It’s associated with it, but the bet’s just a positive-value play (in our eyes, referencing FanGraphs) with no red flags.
Mitchell Parker, not a particularly touted prospect, has a 3.82 FIP across 33 career MLB starts.
Jake Irvin, another not particularly touted prospect, has 2.7 career fWAR across 62 career starts.
Irvin’s numbers aren’t off the charts, but they’re solid. Parker’s are really good. All of which makes me wonder if Jim Hickey is doing a good job in D.C.
Pick: Washington to win +120. 15.00 units to win 18.00. Kremer and Parker must start.
World Series
The Mets have the fifth-shortest World Series odds and, using FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds, the second-highest expected value. That’s a great position to occupy.
We’re loading up a little on the Mets right now out of concern/hope that they’ll pull away a little in the NL East. If they do, we’ll be glad to have these in the bag.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +1600. 2.00 units to win 32.00.
NL West
On the division side, FanGraphs really likes the value on the Giants at this price. It’s a longshot, but we’re in a position where we’d net a profit in four of the six divisions if the current FanGraphs favorite won it. We have risk, but it’s early enough to grab big value when it’s there. The upside of the Giants veterans seems to be going unnoticed.
Pick: San Francisco to win +2400. 2.00 units to win 48.00.
NHL Eastern Conference
Our Gelo model relies heavily on the idea that hockey’s a very mental sport. It adjusts rapidly to results, letting teams get hot and cold rather than trying to stay close to talent baselines. Ironically, I think markets are so low on the Leafs because they also think hockey’s very mental. Their theory goes, though, that the Leafs will crack under all the pressure.
We don’t love putting so many chips on the Leafs right out of the gate, but we’re worried about this value disappearing quickly. So, two more units on Toronto, this time at the conference level rather than to win the Stanley Cup.
Pick: Toronto to win +400. 2.00 units to win 8.00.
First Round: LA Lakers vs. Minnesota
I haven’t run the numbers on this and I’m being a little facetious, so please only take me about 75% seriously when I say that if the Lakers are good enough to face 12-to-1 title odds, the Lakers are good enough to still be the favorite in this series. 12-to-1 is a stupidity tax, but the odds could be 25-to-1 and they’d still imply the Lakers should be favored to get out of this first round alive. Since we already have a Western Conference future on the Wolves, we’ll take LA here. The intent is not to hedge, but that’s the effect, and I’d be lying if I said it wasn’t at least slightly shaping today’s decisionmaking.
Pick: LA Lakers to win series +105. 2.00 units to win 2.10.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –106.42 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –3% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 303 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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