Grateful to the A’s for pulling it out last night. Possibly grateful to the Nuggets and Knicks as well. We’ll see.
Our NHL and NBA portfolios, the daily MLB moneyline, and our weekday MLB futures are all ahead. See you down there.
Seattle at Sacramento
We’re in on the A’s again today. We theorized early in the year that home-field advantage might be weaker for the A’s. It’s possible that’s the case, and so far, the numbers do bear it out. (They’ve been bad at home and good on the road.) In a sample this small, though, one that doesn’t account for relatively difficulty of schedule? That’s so easy to overblow.
Pick: Sacramento to win –115. 15.00 units to win 13.04. Hancock and Springs must start.
ALCS
More A’s here. We’ve been holding off, but the odds are starting to shorten and the odds remain the best in the league.
Pick: Sacramento to win +7000. 2.00 units to win 140.00.
World Series
The odds are shortening here, too, but not by enough. Especially for a team that looks more and more likely to be there. The A’s are a longshot to make it to October. The Tigers are a longshot to win big once they’re there. The latter at least gives us leverage.
Pick: Detroit to win +1800. 2.00 units to win 36.00.
Second Round: Minnesota vs. Golden State
Speaking of leverage, we do have a 20-to-1 future on the Timberwolves to win the Western Conference. We see value here against them, and we’ll happily take a little balance. We’d still prefer the Wolves win, but in a portfolio approach, balance is good.
Pick: Golden State to win series +177. 2.00 units to win 3.54.
Second Round: Washington vs. Carolina
As established, our model does not share markets’ fondness for the Hurricanes. Not because of their size, either. It’s because they haven’t performed all that well lately.
Pick: Washington to win series +170. 2.00 units to win 3.40.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –177.60 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –5% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 322 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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