Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,734 published picks, not including pending futures. 3% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Atlanta @ Houston
Max Fried brings this to just about an exact tossup. Value’s on Atlanta, even with a slight rest advantage for the Houston bullpen.
Pick: Atlanta to win +105. Low confidence.
