Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,733 published picks, not including pending futures. 2% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just one pick today. Letting the futures lie.
Atlanta @ Houston
Framber Valdez has been great at times, and is set up for a big 2022, but he’s so much of an unknown quantity, still, and the Houston bullpen is uncertain before Ryan Pressly. Atlanta’s an underdog for a reason, but it should probably be just a little bit closer than this in the market.
Pick: Atlanta to win +115. Low confidence.
