Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 574 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But it’s not too shabby on a daily basis.
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One pick today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Louisiana-Monroe @ Texas State
It’s Texas State’s eighth year in the FBS.
It’s Louisiana-Monroe’s 26th.
Between them, they’ve appeared in exactly one bowl game, the 2012 Independence Bowl, which ULM lost 45-14 to Ohio.
It doesn’t look likely that either will change that this season. Our model has each favored in only two more games, with one of those, for Texas State, occurring tonight. Still, a win by ULM would mean they’d need just one upset to crack bowl eligibility, and a win by Texas State would keep them two upsets away. Better than the respective alternatives.
Pick: Texas State +3 (-105). Low confidence.
