Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,969 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Just the one market today. We have the flexibility to hedge more against our NBA and NHL portfolios, but we don’t get much out of doing that on the basketball side because of how short the odds are on the Nuggets, and we have time on the hockey side to wait out the basketball and see what we’re dealing with heading into Game 5. That one market, then:
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 43–30, we’re up 7.28 units, we’re up 10% (the average line on our winners has been –115). April was great, May was bad, June has been good so far. We’ve won our last four.
Houston @ Cleveland
There isn’t much that’s great on today’s board, and it doesn’t feel comfortable to bet on a team favored over the Astros.
At the same time, Shane Bieber is Shane Bieber, and he hasn’t had a great year so far but he also hasn’t been bad. That’s the kind of start out of which a good run can come, and we don’t love Brandon Bielak.
Pick: Cleveland to win –126. Low confidence. (Bielak and Bieber to start.)
