Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,081 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just the moneyline today, with futures off for the weekend again.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 74–54–4, we’re up 15.77 units, we’re up 12% (the average line on our winners has been –106). April was great, May was bad, June was good, July was great. August is going well so far, though we could use a win today.
Texas @ San Francisco
There are a lot of little things with this one. Dane Dunning’s solid, but his ERA’s outperforming his FIP and xERA by around a run. The Rangers have one of the more dramatic home/road splits in the league, and not in favor of winning on the road. It’s a Sunday, and there’s some evidence that Sundays favor teams who lost on Friday and Saturday. Our record betting on the Giants this year is 4–2–1, though we haven’t bet them as often as a favorite as we have as an underdog. Overall? We like it. Not the biggest upside, but nice to bet a favorite after losing two straight.
Pick: San Francisco to win –135. Low confidence. (Dunning and Webb must start.)
